000
FXUS62 KMHX 220711
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
311 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...SOME ISOLD SHRA CONT OVER THE CSTL WTRS WITH A
FEW TO THE SW. MAY NEED SMALL POP NEAR CST THIS MORN FOR ACTIVITY
APPROACHING FROM THE SW THEN EXPECT ISOLD ACTIVITY INLAND THIS AFTN
AS SEA BRZ INTERACTS WITH MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMS. WITH DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUN HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH UPR
70S TO AROUND 80 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...AS UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W MDLS SHOW
SURGE IN MOISTURE ACROSS ERN NC WITH PRECIP WTRS AOA 1.75 INCHES
ALONG THE CST BY LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA TO
DEVELOP AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS CST AND
LOWEST DEEP INLAND. MILD AND MOIST SSW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
WITH UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURS AS EASTERN NC REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGE OFFSHORE AND A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO
THURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SW WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THURS WITH GOOD LIFT AND
PWATS APPROACHING 1.65 INCHES. THE MAIN THREAT THURS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY FRI. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO THURS AND FRI WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S
OBX. RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFF THE
COAST...WINDS SHIFTING NW THEN N AND WEAK CAA INITIATING ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH NC/VA FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SAT. WEAK CAA WILL PERSIST SAT AND SUN WITH BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE...YIELDING NE
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S INLAND...BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE MAY. SOME
INLAND AREAS COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S FRI
NIGHT/SAT AM. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE ESE AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MON AND INTERACT WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MON AND TUES. WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON THROUGH TUES. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM MON
AND TUES AS THICKNESS VALUES AND TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...MAIN CONCERN THRU EARLY MORN HRS WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME IFR OR WORSE CIGS DEVELOPING. GFS BASED
GUIDANCE HITTING LOW CLOUDS HARD WHILE NAM KEEPS MAINLY VFR OVER
AREA. A FEW SITES TO THE SW HAVE LOW CIGS NOW SO THINK COULD BE SOME
DEVELOPING AT TAF SITES LATER. IF ANY STRATUS DOES DEVELOP SHLD LIFT
TO VFR THRU THE MORN WITH VFR REST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY ISOLD
CONVECTION INLAND THIS AFTN. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
WITH SCT SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING LATE...EXPECT WILL HAVE SOME
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA AND ALSO POSS IN STRATUS FURTHER
INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURS/THURS NIGHT. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS THIS MORN WILL
INCREASE TO SOLID 15 TO 20 KTS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FT TODAY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET MOST WTRS THIS EVENING AND CONT
IN THAT RANGE TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA TODAY THEN INCREASING SHRA AND
TSRA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WED...SW GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THURS
AND THURS NIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL RANGE 10-20 KT WITH SEAS
MOSTLY 3-5 FT. THE GRADIENT PINCHES TIGHTER THURS AFTERNOON AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SEAS OF 6-7 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS...AS WELL AS GUSTS TO 25 KT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THURS AFTERNOON INTO FRI AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WATERS FRI. WINDS BECOME N/NW FRI EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. THE RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS SUN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10
KT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION. SEAS DIMINISH SUN TO 2-3 FT SOUTH OF
DIAMOND SHOALS TO 2-4 FT NORTH. PREVIOUS SEAS FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE...THUS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST WAVEWATCH III
GUIDANCE HOWEVER STILL A FOOT OR TWO BELOW RAW 00Z WAVEWATCH RUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG