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000
FXUS62 KMHX 230509
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
109 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /EARLY THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1 AM THURS...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM OFF
THE SOUTHERN COAST AND ALONG THE OBX. THE 4 KM WRF MODELS AS WELL
AS THE NAM/RUC INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO MOVE
NORTH INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS TOWARD MORNING AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST RAMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AFTER 08Z OR SO. THIS MATCHES
WELL WITH MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM OFF CAPE FEAR MOVING NORTH
TOWARD THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS INCREASING TO
1.90 INCHES...ROUGHLY 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAY...AND MATCHES WELL
WITH BLENDED TPW WHICH SUGGESTS PWATS AROUND 1.80-1.90 INCHES
ADVECTING N ACROSS EASTERN NC. DUE TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVEL SSW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY. AN INITIAL SURGE OF
PRECIP WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY ASSOCD WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF...THEN CUD SEE A BREAK IN THE STEADIER PRECIP
AS THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHIFTS INLAND AS FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTN. CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT MAY SEE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTN GIVEN THE INCREASING
SHEAR/UPPER SUPPORT LATE. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY AS
PRECIP WATER REMAINS ABOVE.

CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY SO A SLIGHT
LEAN TO THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...MAINLY UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THU NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC FRI...WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRI ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...HIGHEST ALONG
THE NE CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH INTO NC
FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SAT. BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON
TAPE...WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE...YIELDING N/NW FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS BELOW
CLIMO...IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW/UPPER 70S
INLAND. SOME INLAND AREAS COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE
ESE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MON AND INTERACT WITH A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO THE NORTH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION MON AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON
THROUGH WED...BETTER CHANCES TUE/WED AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM EARLY THROUGH MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPS BUILD
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM THURS...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR BY 08-09Z...MAINLY IN LOWERED
CEILINGS AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS NORTH OVER THE TERMINALS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. CONVECTION OFF THE CAPE FEAR
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT OAJ/EWN
EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND
IMPACTS ALL TAF SITES TODAY. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MON.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW 12-17 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT...AND SEAS 2-3 FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS TO 3-5 FT SOUTH. AN 0230Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED
SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KT FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FROM BIG
ROCK NE TO OFF RODANTHE. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH 10 TO
15 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH. NO MAJOR TWEAKS AT THIS TIME BUT A PEAK AT
THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT WIND FORECAST MAY BE OVERDONE BY
2-4 KT TODAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO DELAYING INCREASED SEAS A FEW
HOURS...BUT STILL EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SEAS BUILD TO
6-7 FEET DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY RAMPS UP.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED THU
NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN S/SSW WINDS 10-20KT
AND SEAS 4-6FT THU NIGHT. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI MORNING SOUTH OF OCRACOKE...AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING
NORTH. VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BECOMING NWLY FRI NIGHT
INCREASING TO 15-25KT WITH CAA. NWLY WINDS CONTINUE SAT AND
SUN...DIMINISHING TO 15KT OR LESS SUN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
MON.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC/RF
LONG TERM...CQD/DAG
AVIATION...CQD/DAG
MARINE...CQD/DAG/LEP