000
FXUS62 KMHX 162247
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
647 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 PM SUN...SKIES CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. NICE SOUTWHEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AROUND HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS WELL TO THE WEST SEEN ON SATELLITE PICTURES
WILL APPROACH AREA AND MAY SEE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BY SUNRISE.
THICKER...LOWER CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF TIL TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW...MORE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED HIGHER AND WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS
DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO GET
WELL INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER INCREASES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...BROAD TROUGHING GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS MON WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO BRING A
THREAT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION MON AFTERNOON. A MODEST SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES MON NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE REGION MOVING INTO
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. MODELS TRENDING
WETTER WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 INCHES WHICH COULD BRING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TUES INTO EARLY WED. HEDGED CLOSER TO THE
12Z NAM AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DISCOUNT
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z RUN IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION WED AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT
WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TUES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED. NE-E FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WED-
FRI WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SAT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING SE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPS GRADUAL WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 639 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TAFS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO
WESTERN SECTIONS BY SUNRISE. WILL SEE CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER
DURING THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH TUES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WED. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE
TUES AND COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT STALL WILL SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE WED INTO THURS WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS OAJ/EWN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE
TERMINALS BY LATE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 644 PM SUN...SOUTHWEST WIND RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FEET. GRADIENT TIGHTENING
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...BUT CANT
RULE OUT SPEEDS/GUSTS TO CRITERIA BEFORE ADVISORY EXPIRES AROUND
SUNRISE.

PREV DISC...AS OF 1235 PM SUNDAY...WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND SOUNDS CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE STILL IN
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE LATER IN
THE DAY AND CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD WITH THE
ADVISORIES EXPIRING LATE TONIGHT. A MORE CHOPPY 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THIS TIME. OVERALL WILL
MAKE NO BIG CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS ON
MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFFSHORE
THROUGH TUES WITH SW FLOW AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT ACROSS
THE WATERS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY TUES AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TO AROUND 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. COULD SEE MINIMAL
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH LOCAL SWAN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 12Z
WAVEWATCH III...INDICATING 6 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS. THE FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS WED WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT...THOUGH WITH INITIAL SURGE WED
COULD SEE N WINDS UP TO 20 KT. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE 00Z ECMWF
GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE AND CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z RUN HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT. EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3-5
FT EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-
     154-156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG/SK
AVIATION...CGG/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG/SK