-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 160248
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1048 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SETTING UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY AND STALL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1040 PM WED...VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WITH
THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY FOR TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO FLATTEN TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHILE
THE SFC HIGH PRES PULLS A LITTLE FARTHER OFFSHORE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SETTING UP BUT SWLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH WILL INHIBIT BEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS FOG FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED. GOOD
MIXING IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE CRYSTAL COAST NORTH TO THE
NORTHERN OBX AS WINDS GUST NEAR 25 KT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED
IN THE MID 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRES WELL OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WILL SEE INCREASING AND THICKENING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS IN
FROM THE WEST. W/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
GUSTY WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER...GENERALLY TO AROUND
15 KT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
COMPRESSED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST THREAT
FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION BUT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD OFFER BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. LOOKS LIKE THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY REAMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT TO THE NORTH MONDAY.
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING
A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY...LOWERING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES) THROUGH MONDAY THEN
WARMING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 720 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO FLATTEN TONIGHT AND THURS WITH ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BRINGING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THURS. W/SW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT MIXING INHIBITING
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY THURS...GENERALLY TO AROUND 15 KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THERE
MAY BE OVERNIGHT RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS...AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH
AND WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT...WITH BUOYS REPORTING 3-5
FT...ALTHOUGH 6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY PRESENT EVEN THOUGH NOT BEING
OBSERVED BY SCANT BUOYS. WXFLOW SITES ACROSS AND ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PAMLICO SOUND INDICATE WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KT...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINE FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND. HIGH
PRES WILL SLOWLY PULL FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THURS ALLOWING
THE PRES GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW
WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-20 KT LATE TONIGHT AND THURS. AVAILABLE
BUOY OBS INDICATING 4-5 FT SOUTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT OFF THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS BUT HAVE BUILD SOME OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
WAVEWATCH/NWPS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE TODAY BUT EXPECT SEAS
TO BUILD A FOOT OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT AND THURS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY..SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CENTRAL WATERS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY STALLING THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
TRYING TO MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT AHEAD OF IT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST
FLOW 10 KT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THE EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NORTHERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL
WATERS. SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME SE AROUND 15 KT AND
CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. SEAS WILL BE 2
TO 4 FT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/SK/DAG