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256
FXUS62 KMHX 020204
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1004 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet
another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 10 PM Wed... Overall the forecast is tracking well. ENC
has dried out as expected with skies rapidly clearing and winds
already becoming light and variable across a good portion of
the area this evening. With high pressure ridging building
overhead, expecting winds to continue to remain light and skies
to remain clear tonight resulting in a fog threat this evening
with patchy dense fog possible as well. This will potentially
impact the morning commute. As a result have added areas of fog
inland and patch fog elsewhere into the forecast. Otherwise
forecast calls for lows in the upper 50s to low 60s tonight.

Prev Disc...Thunderstorm activity should be mainly diurnally-
driven, with a downward trend in coverage and intensity after
8pm this evening. In the wake of the thunderstorms, winds will
be very light, or even calm, and skies will attempt to clear
out. This plus whatever rain falls today should support an
increased fog potential tonight. There is some uncertainty with
how much clearing will occur, but the pattern, plus model
guidance, supports a risk of dense fog.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Much quieter day on tap. After morning low
clouds/fog scour out, a warm day under mo sunny skies is
expected. A sea-breeze will develop by afternoon, though limited
moisture will preclude any shower activity along it, so we
remain pop-free tomorrow afternoon. Highs should be quite warm,
in the mid 80s interior, to mid 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet until this weekend when conditions become more unsettled
  through early next week

- Best rain chances on Sunday

FORECAST DETAILS

Friday...A passing shortwave embedded within the ridge will cause a
slight bump in winds and an increase in cloud cover. Additionally, a
dry cold front to our north will dip south into our northern
counties. Temps will reach their warmest marks of the week before
the cold front moves through with the coastal plain topping out in
the upper 80s and the beaches in the mid 70s.

Saturday-Tuesday...The mid-level ridge remains over the eastern US
Saturday but weakens as a complex series of shortwave troughs and
surface lows move toward the area, resulting in unsettled conditions
that will persist into the beginning of next week. Chances for
showers and storms start to increase Saturday morning and peak
Sunday (30-50%). Shower and storm chances hang around through the
period due to the lingering nature the front, but they will be
decreasing as we progress into next week (25-30% Monday, 15-20%
Tuesday). Saturday`s high temps will be a few degrees cooler than
Friday due to the dry cold front that will dip south (low 80s
coastal plain, low 70s beaches). Temps remain around the same Sunday
before rebounding next week with highs expected to reach back
into the mid to upper 80s across the coastal plain Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 720 PM Wed...Current ongoing shower and thunderstorm
activity should quickly dissipate within the next hour or so
with EWN/OAJ maybe seeing a brief decrease in vis or ceilings as
this activity moves through just before it dissipates by about
00Z. Otherwise expect light winds tonight and clearing skies
resulting in an increased risk for BR/FG tonight. Current
thinking is visibilities begin to decrease closer to the 4- 6Z
timeframe with the potential for IFR/LIFR vis/ceilings between
07Z-12Z before conditions rapidly clear by 13Z. Mo sunny skies
expected after 13z, with light onshore (s to se) breezes
expected.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 4 AM
Wednesday...Pred VFR expected through Friday. Conditions become
more unsettled this weekend through early next week due to a
series of disturbances moving across the area. There will be
multiple chances for showers and storms with Sunday having the
greatest threat (30-60%). Periods of lower CIGs and VIS as well
as gusty winds if near any storms can be expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Winds will remain light (5-15kt) for the rest
of the day and into the evening. In fact, winds become mostly
calm to below 5 kt late, and therefore there will be a potential
for fog across most area waters, sounds, and rivers. Seas of
2-4 ft are forecast to slowly lay down through tonight, with 1-3
ft through the day Thu.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish tonight with
loss of heating, and be followed with an increased risk of fog.
The potential exists for a period of sub 1SM visibilities
during this time, and we`ll monitor this in later forecasts in
case a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is needed.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Sub-SCA conditions with multiple chances for showers and
  thunderstorms

FORECAST DETAILS

Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period but multiple
chances for showers and thunderstorms could create hazardous
boating conditions. Sunday presents the best opportunity for
showers and storms (30-40%). Winds will be 5-10 kt out of the
NE on Thursday but will veer to the southwest by early Friday. A
dry cold front will sag south into northern counties on Friday.
North of Cape Hatteras, 5-10 kt winds will be out of the E by
the afternoon. South of Cape Hatteras, winds will be 5-10 kt out
of the ESE. Winds and seas pick up Saturday-Sunday as a front
approaches. Winds will be ESE around 10-15 kt Saturday and then
southerly by Sunday. Seas remain around 2 ft until Saturday when
they will increase to 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...OJC/RJ
AVIATION...RCF/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC