-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 160638
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
238 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SETTING UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY AND STALL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM THU...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO FLATTEN
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHILE THE SFC HIGH PRES PULLS A LITTLE FARTHER OFFSHORE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL INVERSION SETTING UP BUT SWLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH WILL
INHIBIT BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS FOG FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. GOOD MIXING IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE CRYSTAL COAST
NORTH TO THE NORTHERN OBX AS WINDS GUST TO 20 KT. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT EXPECTED IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRES WELL OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WILL SEE INCREASING AND THICKENING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS IN
FROM THE WEST. W/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
GUSTY WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER...GENERALLY TO AROUND
15 KT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY COMPRESSED AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION BUT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
SHOULD OFFER BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY REAMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. EXPECTING A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO BEGIN BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY...LOWERING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES) THROUGH MONDAY THEN
WARMING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM THU...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC SLOWLY SINKS
SOUTHWARD. SWLY WIND GUSTS 15-20KT TODAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BRINGING POSSIBLE BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL BECOMNE NEARLY STATIONARY AND IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO THERE
MAY BE OVERNIGHT RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS...AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH
AND WINDS LIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT...WITH BUOYS REPORTING 3-6
FT. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO EXTEND SCA FOR
PAMLICO SOUND A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBS STILL SHOWING GUSTS
TO 25KT. HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY PULL FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
THURS ALLOWING THE PRES GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-20 KT LATE TONIGHT
AND THURS. AVAILABLE BUOY OBS INDICATING 4-5 FT SOUTHERN WATERS
AND 2-3 FT OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS BUT HAVE BUILD SOME OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY
STALLING THROUGH SUNDAY THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST
FLOW 10 TO 15 KT AHEAD OF IT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THE EASTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL WATERS. SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME
SE AROUND 15 KT AND CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INCREASING TO 3
TO 5 FT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...BTC/JME/CQD/DAG
MARINE...BTC/JME/SK/CQD/DAG