-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 200822
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
422 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
WHILE MOVING OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG OR JUST OFF OF THE COAST
THEN DISSIPATE. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE WEST INTO THE AREA WHILE A LEE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF OF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DURING THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
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FOR THE MOST PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS DRY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM CAPE HATTERAS SOUTH IN CASE THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WE GET SOME SHOWERS TO BRUSH THE COAST.
OTHERWISE WE WILL REMAIN IN NE FLOW WHICH COULD AGAIN ALLOW SOME
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ALONG
THE COAST.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM THUR...SOMEWHAT TRICKY FCST WITH BELOW AVG
CONFIDENCE FOR THE LONG TERM. SUBTLE TROUGHING ALOFT WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 20/00Z ECMWF AND GEM HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF DEVELOPING WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COAST FRI
AND LINGERING THROUGH SAT. MEANWHILE NAM/GFS CONTINUE GENERALLY
DRY FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. HAVE GIVEN WEIGHTING TO THE WETTER
SOLN THOUGH CAPPING POPS AT LOW CHANCE ATTM DUE TO THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES. HAVE INCLUDED THE CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL AREAS ON
FRI AS INLAND LOCALES WILL STILL RETAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW
60S AND SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SAT WILL SEE A MOISTENING OF BNDRY
LAYER AS PWATS INC TO ABOVE 1.75 AND TD VALS INC THROUGH THE
60S...AND HAVE SPREAD THE CHANCE POPS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

FOR SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE E NC WITH BROAD SW HUMID
FLOW WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON SCT TO ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS EACH DAY
AWAY FROM THE COAST AS SEA BREEZE BECOMES ACTIVE. TEMPS WILL START
OUT THE PERIOD IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGHS FRI/SAT CLIMBING INTO
THE MID/UPR 80S TO NEAR 90 SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER A NOCTURNAL/FRONTAL
INVERSION. THINK GREATEST THREAT OF THIS WILL OCCUR AT EWN AND
OAJ IN AXIS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FURTHER NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW
LEVELS WILL BE TOO MIXED FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. ANY RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AS OF 345 AM THUR...SCT THUNDERSHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT FOR TEMPO RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY WITH THE THUNDERSHOWERS. POSSIBLE RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EACH NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS
CLIMB AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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HORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN IN NE FLOW WITH A BIT
OF A GRADIENT PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE
STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. IN GENERAL EXPECT NE WINDS 10 TO 20
KT AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND WW3 WERE THE
FAVORED MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AS OF 345 AM THUR...TRICKY WIND FCST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL
MODELS MAINTAIN NE FLOW THROUGH SAT WHILE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODEL BRING
S WINDS AS EARLY AS FRI EVENING. WILL BASE FCST ON THE ECMWF AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH SHOULD GFS/NAM VERIFY THAN WINDS WILL REMAIN NE
THROUGH SAT. EITHER WAY...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TYPICAL SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING MODERATELY
STRONG EARLY TO MIDDLE IN THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RSB/TL
MARINE...RSB/TL