-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 150721
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE TODAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
CAROLINA FRIDAY AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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AS OF 315 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
OFF THE SE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...WHILE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING RESULTING IN SCT-OVC MID CLOUD DECK. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
OFF THE COAST TODAY...EXPECT CLOUDS TO DO THE SAME. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S. GUSTY SWLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PGRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND WEAK TROUGHING INLAND...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 AM WED...EXPECT OVERALL QUIET AND MILD NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED SWLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
COMPRESSED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INLAND WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AIR ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN STALLED THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. CAN`T RULE OUT A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S THURSDAY LOWERING SLIGHTLY BEYOND
THAT TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S (MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AREA OF MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF
THE COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN E OF TERMINALS TODAY...THOUGH COULD
SEE SCT CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SW WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25KT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO CROSS-WIND
IMPACTS AT EWN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE OVERNIGHT
RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN FALLS...AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH AND WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS
2-4FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY BTWN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING INLAND. SWLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7FT PER NWPS/WAVEWATCH.
ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO INCLUDE ALBEMARLE SOUND
IN SCA...THINK IT WILL SEE FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT. SCA CONTINUE FOR
ALL WATERS AND SOUNDS. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY THU AM...WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
CENTRAL WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN A INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING 15 TO 25 KT INTO THURSDAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY STALLING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO PRODUCE A MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW 10-15 KT EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL WATERS SATURDAY. THE FLOW IS FORECAST
TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ALL WATERS SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...CQD/BTC/JME
MARINE...CQD/BTC/JME