-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 191651
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1251 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE
WEEK. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1250 PM SUNDAY...HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES ON THIS UPDATE.
AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS LOOKS LIKELY TO AFFECT OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR AWHILE AND HAVE UPPED POPS THERE. THINK
THE REST OF THE AREA MAY SEE A LULL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOWER IN THESE AREAS.
WITH NUMEROUS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...HAD ALREADY RAISED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND THIS STILL LOOKS
GOOD. PARAMETERS FROM MORNING SOUNDING DID SHOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH LI VALUES PROJECTED AROUND -5 THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ABOUT 1400 J/KG CAPE. SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...SO THINK
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ENHANCED BY
THE UPR LEVEL TROUGH...AND INCREASING OVERALL AMS MOISTURE WITH
PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPR 60S UNDER MOCLDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER WET
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA...COMBINED WITH AN
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS
PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS.
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON AND MON NIGHT...THOUGH
AT THIS TIME THINK BIGGEST THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE WITH UPPER HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILDING
TUESDAY. EXPECT SEABREEZE TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE
AFTERNOON AND INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE GENERALLY DRY AND WARM...THOUGH
MODELS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME LIGHT PRECIP INLAND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION
TAKING ON A MORE STRATIFORM NATURE WITH MUCH COOLER AIR DIGGING
SOUTHWARD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S/MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SAT WITH N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM SUNDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AS
THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAINING AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THUS
FAR. THINK KOAJ AND KISO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT MVFR AND
PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALL HINTS AT A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL PROJECT THAT IN THE NEW TAF CYCLE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUE...WITH
BEST CHANCES MON. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MID TO LATE WEEK. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT
GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM SUNDAY...MADE ALMOST NO CHANGES TO CURRENT MARINE
FORECAST AS SE/S WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FEET TO THE SOUTH SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
S/SSW FLOW 10-20KT PERSISTING AND SEAS REMAINING 2-5FT. MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT DUE TO
CONFIDENCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD