-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 242305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
POST-FRONTAL CAA SURGE CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS NOW
DROPPING INTO THE 40S INLAND FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
OFF THE OUTER BANKS BUT SOME LINGERING DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL BE
DISSIPATING THRU THE EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND (KEWN RECORD LOW FOR 5/25
IS 46 IN 1967)...WITH LOW 50S NEARER THE COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WTIH HIGH
PRES CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM NW. LEANED TO WARMER MOS GDNC FOR
MAX TEMPS WITH GOOD INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS...MID 70S
INLAND TO 60S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MON RESULTING IN
BEAUTIFUL WX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MON WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NC MON NIGHT.
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE NORTHERN CWA BASED ON AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/ECMWF. S/SWLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FOR TUE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY TRIGGERED BY SEABREEZE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT. BY THU/FRI EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S
TO 90 DEGREES INLAND. DIURNAL ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WED THROUGH FRI...THOUGH OVERALL THINK RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT WILL
ACT TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD. ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THEREAFTER. NW WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 18-20 KT AGAIN AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY BUT THEN DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THEN AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY NW WINDS WITH POST-FRONAL CAA SURGE WILL PRODUCE SCA
CONDITIONS ALL WATERS TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER NRN WATERS INTO
SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM S TO N SAT
AFTN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE...RESULTING IN LIGHT BACKING WINDS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON
NIGHT...AND S/SELY WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS TUE AND WED...RESULTING IN
S/SWLY FLOW AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/BTC/CQD
MARINE...JBM/BTC/CQD