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787
FXUS62 KMHX 022314
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
714 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in for a couple of days before yet another
cold front impacts the area over the weekend bringing slight
chances for showers, but should remain mainly west of ENC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 715 PM Thu... After a brief period of some patchy fog
along the immediate coast of the NOBX things have cleared up
across ENC as high pressure remains overhead. Overall no
significant changes to the forecast for tonight as mo clear
skies and temps in the 70s and 80s will give way to lows in the
60s, clearing skies early this evening, and then another round
of fog tonight. Some of the fog could become dense again,
especially across srn half of the FA around the Crystal Coast,
where high res model suite and HREF probs are highlighting a
60-80% chance for less than 1 mile visibilities in this area
with closer to 10-30% probs from about Lenoir, Northern Craven,
and Beaufort Counties north and the fog forecast reflects this.
May need a headline DFA at some point tonight depending on how
fog covg and density evolves. Winds will be calm to light ssw
overnight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 303 PM Thu...After morning fog burns off, another very
warm day on tap, with highs into the mid and upr 80s interior,
to 70s coast as a dry sea breeze develops once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Quiet until this weekend when conditions
become more unsettled through early next week. Best rain chances
on Sunday

Weekend...The mid-level ridge remains over the eastern US
Saturday but weakens as a complex series of shortwave troughs
and surface lows move toward the area, resulting in unsettled
conditions that will persist into the beginning of next week.
Chances for showers and storms start to increase Saturday
morning and peak Sunday (30-50%). Shower and storm chances hang
around through the period due to the lingering nature the front,
but they will be decreasing as we progress into next week
(25-50% Monday, 15-30% Tuesday). Saturday`s high temps will be
a few degrees cooler than Friday due to the originally dry cold
front that will dip south (low 80s coastal plain, low 70s
beaches). Temps remain around the same Sunday.

Early next Week...Upper ridging builds back over the area
Tuesday behind a weak shortwave passing Monday. Shortwave and
remnants of the weekend`s front/SFC trough will lead to some
precip Mon. Temps rebound next week with highs expected to
reach back into 80s Mon and Tues, 90s Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 715 PM Thursday... Pred VFR conditions this afternoon
have remained across ENC with VFR conditions continuing into
late tonight before giving away to a fog threat. After looking
at the latest guidance have sped up the timing of the fog threat
by a few hours with EWN/OAJ likely seeing patchy fog between
4-6Z while ISO and PGV start seeing fog develop closer to 6-8Z
and will reflect this timing in the TAF`s. Fog could become
dense at times especially along the Crystal Coast which would
result in IFR/LIFR conditions at the EWN/OAJ TAF sites. Have
also penciled in IFR vis at ISO but kept PGV at MVFR vis with
patchy fog as HI-RES suite and HREF visibility probs support a
higher dense fog threat closer to the Crystal Coast. By early
Fri morning any leftover fog will quickly burn off resulting in
VFR conditions through the reminder of Fri.

LONG TERM /Sat through Tuesday/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Friday.
Conditions become more unsettled this weekend through early next
week due to a series of disturbances moving across the area.
There will be multiple chances for showers and storms with
Sunday having the greatest threat (30-60%). Periods of lower
CIGs and VIS as well as gusty winds if near any storms can be
expected.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 303 PM Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions through the period.
Winds will be light (5 kt or less) and variable for much of the
day but will slightly increase in speed (5-10 kt) as they
transition to southerly and then eventually southwesterly by
later tonight. Seas only 1-2 ft throughout.

May be dense fog again for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers
once again, esp further south in the srn/ctrl coastal waters,
Pamlico Sound, and Neuse/Pamlico rivers later this evening into
early Fri.

LONG TERM /Sat through Tuesday/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Sub- SCA conditions are expected through
the period but multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
could create hazardous boating conditions. Sunday presents the
best opportunity for showers and storms (30-40%). Winds veer to
the southwest by early Friday. A dry cold front will sag south
into northern counties on Friday. North of Cape Hatteras, 5-10
kt winds will be out of the E by the afternoon. South of Cape
Hatteras, winds will be 5-10 kt out of the ESE. Winds and seas
pick up Saturday- Sunday as a front approaches. Winds will be
ESE around 10-15 kt Saturday and then southerly by Sunday. Seas
remain around 2 ft until Saturday when they will increase to 2-4
ft.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL/OJC
LONG TERM...JME/CEB
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...TL/CEB