000
FXUS62 KMHX 150220
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1020 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SCT/BKN DIURNAL STRATO CU HAS DIMINISHED AND
REPLACED BY CLEAR SKIES. CURRENT TD VALS IN THE MID 50S SUGGEST
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND...AND THIS JIVES WITH GFS/ECM
MOS VALS IN THIS RANGE. LOWS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...QUIET AND VERY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NC SAT...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TUESDAY...ECMWF FASTER AND DEEPER WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY
BY THE MODELS. AT THE SURFACE...ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH AREA ON TUESDAY AND IS DEPICTING A SINGLE LOW CENTRAL
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE GFSENS HAS A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE SPEED OF THE ECMWF AS SURFACE FEATURES APPEAR
TO LINE UP BETTER WITH UPPER LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY WILL BE PUSHED
TOWARD THE EAST AS SYSTEM APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL PICK UP MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.
WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AREA. FRONT WILL LIE UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH WEAK WAVES TRAVELING ALONG
IT...KEEPING LOW GRADE POPS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.
MODELS MOVING FRONT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 730 PM FRI...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. SCT/BKN STRO CU WILL DIMINISH TO CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. DO NOT FEEL FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE
GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT
BR DITCH FOG LATE TONIGHT. WEST WINDS FOR SAT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. DIURNAL CU WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 119 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY BUT WITH MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AS FRONT
LAYS UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NLY WINDS 10-20KT ACROSS
CENTRAL WATERS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT SO WILL HANG ON TO SCA A BIT
LONGER. WINDS DIMINISHING ELSEWHERE BELOW THE 15 KT RANGE. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NW
TONIGHT INTO SAT. NICE DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS SAT WITH
NW/W WINDS EARLY BECOMING SW BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 2-4FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 132 PM FRI...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AND WILL BE INCREASING IN SPEED AS A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS
AND THE DIRECTION TURNS TO NORTHWEST. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/CQD
NEAR TERM...TL/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...TL/LEP/CGG
MARINE...TL/CQD/CGG