-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 201330
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
930 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
RESULTING IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 920 AM MONDAY...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON
SOME THIN SPOTS SHOWING UP IN VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP
FORECAST. AXIS OF BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES WHILE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IS OVER THE RALEIGH CWA.
LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF STARTING TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD A BIT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS CONTINUING OVER OUR 5 WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL
TREND BACK TO CHANCE POPS EAST OF THERE. WILL MONITOR AND IF ALL
THE SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CAN BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED...HIGHER POPS MAY RESULT FURTHER EAST LATER TODAY.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREAS WELL INLAND DURING THE EVENING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA LOWEST FOR COASTAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FAIRLY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE MID AND UPR 60S UNDER
MOCLDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 154 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH AND COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR SO WILL HAVE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH CONTINUE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH INCREASING POPS STARTING
THURSDAY. MODELS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD DRYING AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...HAVEN`T SEEN THE MVFR CIGS MATERIALIZE AT
THE TAF SITES AS OF YET BUT CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO 5K FT AT EWN.
WILL LIKELY DELAY ONSET OF MVFR CIGS TO THE 12Z ISSUANCE.

PREV DISC...PROBABILITY IS HIGHER FOR LOW CEILINGS THAN LOW
VISIBILITIES IN FOG THIS MORN. SLY WINDS EXPECTED ARND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KT FM 15Z-23Z. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVE WITH HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD RESULT
IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BUT DIFFICULT DETERMINE THE TIMING SO
WILL LIKELY STICK TO VCTS/CB IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MAY SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG/ST DVLPG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT THE
TERMINAL SITES THAT RECEIVE RAFL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 157 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION. LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE A CONTINUED THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM MONDAY...NOTED A SLIGHT UPTICK TO THE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 201 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE WATERS.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE ENOUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK TO KEEP
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF
MARINE...JAC/CTC/RF