000
FXUS62 KMHX 191332
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
932 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE
WEEK. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM SUNDAY...THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING REVEALS A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ERN NC. THE LATEST RAP MODEL IS A BIT OVERDONE
ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...WHICH CURRENTLY IS LIMITED TO MAINLY
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR THIS
MORNING. WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY UPSTREAM...AND GIVEN THE MOIST
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST STORM MOTION IS ONLY
ABOUT 8 KNOTS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN SPOTS. ALSO GIVEN THE LARGE PROJECTED CAPE VALUES...WOULD
ANTICIPATE A GOOD OF LIGHTNING WITH THE HEAVIER CELLS. WITH SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...AND WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS
ALREADY NEARING FORECAST HIGHS...HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ENHANCED BY
THE UPR LEVEL TROUGH...AND INCREASING OVERALL AMS MOISTURE WITH
PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPR 60S UNDER MOCLDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER WET
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA...COMBINED WITH AN
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS
PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS.
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON AND MON NIGHT...THOUGH
AT THIS TIME THINK BIGGEST THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE WITH UPPER HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILDING
TUESDAY. EXPECT SEABREEZE TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE
AFTERNOON AND INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE GENERALLY DRY AND WARM...THOUGH
MODELS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME LIGHT PRECIP INLAND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION
TAKING ON A MORE STRATIFORM NATURE WITH MUCH COOLER AIR DIGGING
SOUTHWARD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S/MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SAT WITH N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...MVFR TO OCNLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ESPECIALLY
AT THOSE THAT THOSE TAF SITES...LIKE EWN...THAT RECEIVED RAFL
YESTERDAY THROUGH 12Z. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SCT
CONVECTION MAINLY DURG THE AFTERNOON CONTG INTO THE EVE HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUE...WITH
BEST CHANCES MON. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MID TO LATE WEEK. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT
GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST AS A
GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE S/SSE FLOW CONTINUES ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
S/SSW FLOW 10-20KT PERSISTING AND SEAS REMAINING 2-5FT. MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT DUE TO
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/CTC/CQD