-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 170500
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
100 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT
WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...MINOR INITIAL TEMP CHANGES OTHERWISE REMOVED
MENTION OF PRECIP UNTIL MORN.

PREV DISC...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TN BRINGING
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
IS DRAPED ACROSS PA EXTENDING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
600-800MB LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE SLGT CHC POPS SWD TO AROUND THE HIGHWAY 264 CORRIDOR. IN
ADDITION...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG INTO THE NRN
COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SWLY FLOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PULL OFFSHORE FRI WITH
WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT THE KINSTON TO HATTERAS LINE DURING THE DAY.
MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PW`S
TO AROUND 1.5" AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH SRN AREAS
CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESSES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ONLY SEE
MID 80S. WINDS SHIFT FRONT NORTH TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS AND EXPECT THE MOST DRASTIC COOL DOWN TO BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OBX WHERE HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN
THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BECOME COMPRESSED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT TO THE NORTH
MONDAY. EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. EXPECTING A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY
AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY...LOWERING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN WARMING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. PRE-FRONTAL FAIR WX WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL BNDRY REMAINING TO N. SHRT
WV APPROACHING FROM W-SW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH EVENING...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH S TOWARD AREA FRI MORNING AND
ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY MAY PRODUCE SCT SHRA ACTIVITY BY LATE
MORNING...MAINLY IMPACTING INLAND SITES. SW WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT THEN SHIFT W FRI AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SAGS OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE OVERNIGHT RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS...AS
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH AND WINDS LIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES. SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND
SEAS 2-5 FT EARLY THIS MORN. PRES GRAD WILL CONT TO RELAX AS WEAK
BNDRY APPROACHES FROM THE N.

PREV DISC...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE WATERS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED
TO REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS AROUND 12Z...THEN STALL AROUND CAPE
HATTERAS FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15
KT...AND BLO 10 KT FRI INVOF THE FRONT. NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS
WILL BE NORTH...SHIFTING THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN
SWLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
FRI AND WAVEWATCH BRINGS SEAS BLO 6 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT FOR FRI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY..A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
SATURDAY NORTH OF THE FRONT MARINERS CAN EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW OF
10-15 KT WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15 KT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY 15
GUSTING TO 20 KT ALL WATERS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
OF THE WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHERLY 15 GUSTING
TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...JAC/SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JAC/JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/SK/DAG