-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 140931
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
531 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 530 AM FRI...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. NO SIG CHANGES TO FORECAST. LOW POPS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AS
SHTWV TROF AND ASSOC CDFNT MOVES OFF THE COAST. SOME UPR LVL
ENERGY ROTATES ARND EXITING TROF WITH BTR AMS MSTR AND A SLGT CHC
CONVECTION DURG THE AFTN ACROSS FOR NERN AREAS. OTHERWISE DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN. SKIES BECOME PTLY CLOUDY WITH COOLER TEMPS TODAY
WITH NW WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. TEMPS SHOULD ONLY CLIMB
INTO THE LWR 80S INLAND TO UPR 70S OBX.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS
BECOMING LGT/VRBL. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...CLR SKIES... AND LGT
WINDS WILL SEE TEMPS LWR INTO THE UPR 50S WELL INLAND TO THE LWR
AND MID 60S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM AND USED A CONSENSUS BLEND. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. ON
MONDAY THE LEESIDE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE.
EXPECT SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NUMEROUS ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...NW WINDS GUSTING ARND 15 KT TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND FNT WITH VFR CONDS. VFR CONDS CONT TONIGHT WITH
CLR SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LGT AND VRBL.

LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUE/
AS OF 330 AM FRI...VFR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION MONDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM FRI...NO SIG CHANGES TO FCST. CDFNT MOVES ACROSS
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN. NW WINDS
INCR TO 10-20 KT...HIGHEST NRN AND CNTRL WATERS. SEAS CONT IN THE
4-7 FT RANGE ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SCA CONTS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS S OF OCRACOKE THROUGH 13Z TODAY THEN SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 5 FT. SCA CONTS FOR THE RMNDR OF THE COASTAL
THROUGH 04Z TO 06Z TONIGHT WITH SEAS CONTG IN THE 4-7 FT
RANGE...THEN SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL
WATERS.

LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUE/
AS OF 330 AM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JAC/HSA
MARINE...JAC/HSA