-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 150240
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1040 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH A WEAK TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
CAROLINA FRIDAY AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1030 PM TUE...CURRENT SATELLITE IS SHOWING MID CLOUD
STREAMING ACROSS OUR CWA...INDICATING THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING
THE AREA. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN OBX
AREA...BUT WITH THE LOW LEVELS BEING FAIRLY DRY...RAIN IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND. WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP IN FORECAST. MINOR
TWEAKS TO DEW PT AND SKIES GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 745 PM TUE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NC STARTED
TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SEA BREEZE MOVED IN...THEREFORE INCREASING DEW POINTS
IN THE COASTAL AREAS. A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...BRING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE TEMPS SHOULD FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW/MID 50S. TEMPS MAY RISE SOME LATE AS MIXING
INCREASES WITH PRES GRADIENTS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES WELL TO THE NORTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WED WITH
SFC HIGH PRES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND A TRAILING SFC FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY WITH WLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW ALOFT BRINGING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING SWLY SFC FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT WAA
WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING BY 60M TO AROUND 1400-1410M
AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO 17C AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
AND MID-UPPER 70S OBX. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY COMPRESSED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH IT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE
COAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF WARM AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
REMAIN STALLED THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. CAN`T
RULE OUT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S THURSDAY LOWERING SLIGHTLY BEYOND
THAT TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S (UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S (UPPER 60S BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.
A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BRING SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS TO AROUND 12KFT. WED SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT
AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
BRING CROSS-WIND CONCERNS AT EWN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THERE
MAY BE OVERNIGHT RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS...AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH
AND WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1030 PM TUE... CURRENT FORECAST IS A GOOD SHAPE. NO FORECAST
ADJUSTMENT NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM TUE...HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING SWLY AND INCREASING THROUGH WED AS GRADIENTS
INCREASE WITH LOW PRES AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE
NORTH. WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA BY MID MORNING WED FOR
MOST WATERS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WHERE MODELS
KEEPING WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT. SEAS BUILD ACCORDINGLY WITH NWPS
AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING TO 5-7 FT EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN WATERS AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
CENTRAL WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AND A INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING 20 TO 25 KT INTO THURSDAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY STALLING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO PRODUCE A MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW 10 GUSTING TO 15 KT
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL WATERS SATURDAY. THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ALL WATERS SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ135-150-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/BM
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/SK/BM
MARINE...JME/SK/BM