-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 171513
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1113 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
LATE WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED ACROSS
EASTERN NC THIS MORNING AND HAS STALLED FROM APPROX HATTERAS
VILLAGE TO GREENVILLE. LIGHT N/NE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF
THE FRONT WITH W/SW PERSISTING TO THE SOUTH. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY DROPPING A FEW
DEGREES. THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT RESIDED OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING IS DISSIPATING FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL
SEE TEMPS RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY FOR MOST AREAS.
THIS WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODIFIED 12Z
KMHX SOUNDING INDICATE LI`S TO -7C AND CAPE TO AROUND 2200 J/KG.
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING ALOFT BUT SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS RATHER
WEAK...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ONLY AROUND 10 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS TODAY BUT FREEZING LEVEL IS ON THE LOWER
END...AROUND 11700 FT...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS CLOUD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT AND SMALL HAIL. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WARMEST SOUTHERN AREAS...TO UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL REMAIN A FOCUSING MECH
FOR SCT CONVECTION. WEAK SHTWV ENERGY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTL FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. SKIES WILL RMN ON THE CLDY SIDE WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LWR AMD MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BECOME
COMPRESSED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAKING FOR AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS SAT
AND SUN AFTERNOONS. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT TO THE
NORTH MONDAY. EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. EXPECTING A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO BEGIN BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY...LOWERING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN WARMING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM FRIDAY...WILL ADD VCTS TO TAF SITES FROM 18Z THIS
AFTN TO 00Z THIS EVE ON UPDATE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY MAY
PRODUCE SCT SHRA ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
INLAND SITES. LGT SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO ELY BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE S INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN NC SAT THROUGH MON RESULTING IN SCT CONVECTION.
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON. PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN GOOD MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM FRIDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO
EASTERN NC THIS MORNING AND HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS. N/NE WINDS AOB 15 KT WILL BECOME E LATE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE SW WINDS AOB 15 KT WILL
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI..A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. SATURDAY NORTH
OF THE FRONT MARINERS CAN EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT WHILE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST. BY SUN MORNING
EXPECT ALL WINDS TO BECOME S/SSW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.
EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN MON WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-20KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
THAT SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON
NIGHT. S/SW WINDS 10-20KT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH SEAS 3-5FT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...SK/CQD