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000
FXUS62 KMHX 201023
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
623 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. A FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE SW COASTAL
COASTAL PLAINS THIS MORNING THUS WILL START NMRS SHRA/TSRA ON
UPDATE. OTRW ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INIT TEMPS.

A WARM AIRMASS CONTS ACROSS ERN NC WITH A WEAK TO MDT SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ARND 1.75
INCHES TODAY. SCT-NMRS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH A
WEAK UPR LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING ACRS THE AREA TODAY. THE HEAVIEST
CONCENTRATION OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND AWAY FROM THE
COAST ESPECIALLY ACRS THE COASTAL PLAINS. RAFL COULD BE HEAVY WITH
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LWR 80S
INLAND TO THE MID AND UPR 70S ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS UNDER MOCLDY
SKIES.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREAS WELL INLAND DURING THE EVENING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA LOWEST FOR COASTAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FAIRLY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE MID AND UPR 60S UNDER
MOCLDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 154 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH AND COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR SO WILL HAVE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH CONTINUE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH INCREASING POPS STARTING
THURSDAY. MODELS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD DRYING AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...HAVEN`T SEEN THE MVFR CIGS MATERIALIZE AT
THE TAF SITES AS OF YET BUT CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO 5K FT AT EWN.
WILL LIKELY DELAY ONSET OF MVFR CIGS TO THE 12Z ISSUANCE.

PREV DISC...PROBABILITY IS HIGHER FOR LOW CEILINGS THAN LOW
VISIBILITIES IN FOG THIS MORN. SLY WINDS EXPECTED ARND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KT FM 15Z-23Z. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVE WITH HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD RESULT
IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BUT DIFFICULT DETERMINE THE TIMING SO
WILL LIKELY STICK TO VCTS/CB IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MAY SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG/ST DVLPG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT THE
TERMINAL SITES THAT RECEIVE RAFL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 157 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION. LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE A CONTINUED THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS EACH NIGHT.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED ON MARINE FCST
UPDATE. CURRENT BUOY OBS INDICATE S WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
3-5 FT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT ACRS THE SRN WATERS AND
ARND 15 KT ACRS THE CNTRL AND NRN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FEET OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 201 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE WATERS.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE ENOUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK TO KEEP
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF