National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KMHX 191930
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will track northeastward across
central North Carolina bringing a warm front north with it this
evening resulting in a threat for precip across ENC. This lows
associated cold front then tracks south across the region and
stalls just offshore on Saturday bringing our next threat for
some precip during the afternoon and evening. An area of low
pressure will lift NE along the front Sunday into Monday
bringing unsettled weather across the region once again. High
pressure briefly builds into the area Tuesday followed by a cold
front with limited moisture pushing across the area Wednesday.
High pressure builds back into the area for the latter half of
the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Fri... In the very near term not much has changed as
continued low level cloud cover has kept things cool and damp along
the NOBX with temps barely getting into the mid 50s, while temps
reached the upper 70s to near 80 across the Coastal Plain in
areas where low cloud cover had dissipated this morning
resulting in a fairly large temperature gradient across ENC this
afternoon.

Otherwise we begin to look at the most active period of the near
term. Latest surface analysis shows a developing low pressure
system near the Triad region this afternoon with its associated
warm front nearing the SC/NC border. This low and frontal
boundary will continue to lift NE`wards through tonight allowing
the ongoing east to southeasterly winds this afternoon to
slowly veer to a SW`rly direction tonight.

Latest mesoanalysis shows building instability across our
southwestern zones where a combination of around 500-1000 J/kg of
SBCAPE and 25-35 kts of 0-6 km shear is noted while lower
instability and shear are noted the farther north and east you get
as a marine layer has allowed the airmass to stay stable north of
about Hwy 264 for now. In addition to this, onshore flow has
resulted in a gradual moistening of of the atmospheric column this
afternoon and with the incoming front providing ample lift some
isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity has
developed to the south and west of the area with some of this
activity becoming severe in nature. General trends have been for
this activity to push north and east through the remainder of the
afternoon impacting our SW`rn counties within the next 1-3 hours and
then continuing onwards before gradually dissipating this
evening after sunset. While we have slightly more instability
across our SW`rn zones, it is much lower across ENC than across
areas to the south and west given this mornings cloud cover thus
limiting the severe threat. While it is not zero, general
thinking is if any storm can survive its trek into our area,
strong wind gusts (40-50 mph), small hail, and frequent
lightning would be the primary concern within the strongest
storms with this threat being isolated at best. After sunset
any left over activity will quickly weaken and continue off to
the north and east eventually nearing the coast by daybreak on
Saturday with any thunder threat ending by about 9-10PM.

More mild temperatures are likely tonight as the frontal
boundary continues to lift northward, with lows in the low 60s
inland and mid 50s across NOBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Fri... SW`rly flow will continue to persist across the
region Sat morning before the next cold front sweeps southwards
across ENC Sat afternoon shifting the winds behind this front to a
NE`rly direction. Any leftover shower activity from the previous
evenings activity will be quickly pushing out to sea Sat morning
with perhaps the biggest change to the forecast for Sat being a
reduction in PoP`s Sat afternoon. Latest thinking is that there
will no longer be much forcing with the incoming front which
should keep the Coastal Plain dry while maybe a few showers
develop along the OBX and Crystal Coast Sat afternoon as the
front makes its way through. Though capped PoP`s at SChc along
the coast and OBX given the downward trend in precip potential.
Otherwise temps get into the low to mid 70s inland and into the
mid 60s to near 70 along the OBX on Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the
Eastern CONUS through the long term bring a progressive pattern
with several frontal passages and an area of low pressure
lifting off the coast early next week.

Sunday through Monday...Shortwave energy moving through the
flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area Sunday
and Sunday night with favorable jet dynamics over the area.
Sfc low pressure will develop along the offshore front and pass
off the OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther
offshore on Monday. There remains some timing differences with
the low but expect widespread rain to develop across the area
Sunday and continue into Sunday night. Rainfall amounts expected
around a half to one inch with highest amounts occuring along
the coast. NE winds, clouds and rain will keep cooler temps
across the area with highs expected in the low to mid 60s.

Most of the rain will push offshore Sunday night but an upper
trough will push across the Southeast which may trigger
additional showers across the area on Monday, however guidance
has been trending farther south and weaker with the trough which
may keep us on the drier side. Below normal temps continue on
Monday with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds into the area
Tuesday but will quickly move offshore by Wednesday with
additional shortwave energy and sfc cold front sliding across
the area bringing the chance for a few showers, though moisture
appears to be limited with this system. High pressure builds
back into the area on Thursday with dry conditions prevailing.
A warming trend will develop Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in
the low to mid 70s, and a few upper 70s possible Wednesday.
Temps cool back to the low to mid 70s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sat/...
As of 120 PM Fri...IFR ceilings have just about mixed out of
everywhere across ENC outside of the NOBX where low level
moisture remains trapped underneath a frontal inversion and low
stratus around 600-800 ft persist. This should eventually mix
out within the next few hours out ahead of incoming shower and
thunderstorm activity, though there is a low end chance IFR
ceilings stick around all day here. Elsewhere a mix of VFR and
MVFR conditions prevails this afternoon and this is forecast to
continue over the next few hours out ahead of incoming shower
and thunderstorm activity later this afternoon. The trend has
been downward on the overall severe threat across our terminals
this afternoon but latest guidance still suggests shower and
thunderstorm activity begin to intrude from the west starting
around the 20Z-02Z PM timeframe with locally lower vis and
ceilings within any thunderstorm or shower that does develop.
Within thunderstorms isolated wind gusts up around 30-40 kts
can`t be ruled out. Otherwise as a front approaches any leftover
VFR conditions will deteriorate this evening starting from west
to east with MVFR ceilings forecast across the terminals
between 0-4Z tonight and then IFR ceilings after about 04Z.
Ceilings then begin to improve late Sat morning as the area
becomes wedged between the front that moves through tonight and
a second front coming in from the north late Sat. Light winds
persist across the region through the period.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 530 AM Friday...Pred VFR expected through Saturday
although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub-
VFR in isolated showers as mid level shortwaves and attendant
cold front moves into the area. Low pressure passes along the
offshore front Sunday through Sunday night bringing the best
chance of widespread rain and sub-VFR conditions across rtes.
Improving conditions are expected on Monday with pred VFR
expected Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Fri... Weak warm front will lift N`wards across
our waters this evening allowing E`rly winds to veer to a SE and
eventually a SW`rly direction tonight while winds remain around
5-15 kts. A cold front then sweeps S`wards across the area Sat
afternoon once again shifting winds behind the front to a N`rly
direction at 10-20 kts with only a few gusts mainly along the
Gulf Stream waters to about 25 kts Sat afternoon. Seas generally
remain around 3-5 ft through the period precluding any issuance
of SCA`s across our waters through the period

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Friday...The front will stall off the coast
Saturday night with winds diminishing to around 15 kt or less
but low pressure will develop along the front Sunday and pass
off the OBX Sunday night into Monday bringing a period NE winds
around 15-25 kt, strongest Sunday night into Monday morning.
High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic on Tuesday with NE
winds around 10-20 kt continuing across the waters. Seas
expected to be around 3-5 ft Saturday into Sunday morning, then
will build to 4-7 ft across the northern and southern waters and
6-9 ft across the central waters Sunday night and Monday. Seas
will gradually subside Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF