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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 250424
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1224 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1220 AM SATURDAY...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE
BASE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ABOUT
TO MOVE OFFSHORE. RISING HEIGHT FIELD TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TO BUILD OVER EASTERN NC.
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CIRCULATE A COLD AND VERY DRY AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AIDING
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL LEAD TO RECORD/NEAR RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S INLAND (KEWN RECORD
LOW FOR 5/25 IS 46 IN 1967)...TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRES CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM NW. LEANED TO WARMER MOS GDNC FOR
MAX TEMPS WITH GOOD INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS...MID 70S
INLAND TO 60S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MON RESULTING IN
BEAUTIFUL WX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MON WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NC MON NIGHT.
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE NORTHERN CWA BASED ON AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/ECMWF. S/SWLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FOR TUE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY TRIGGERED BY SEABREEZE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT. BY THU/FRI EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S
TO 90 DEGREES INLAND. DIURNAL ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WED THROUGH FRI...THOUGH OVERALL THINK RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT WILL
ACT TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN A WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THEN AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25
KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WINDS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. 4-6 FT SEAS TONIGHT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WHILE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT EARLY
SATURDAY SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE...RESULTING IN LIGHT BACKING WINDS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON
NIGHT...AND S/SELY WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS TUE AND WED...RESULTING IN
S/SWLY FLOW AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
     135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JBM/BTC/JME/CQD/LEP