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000
FXUS62 KMHX 151727
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
127 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
THE FRONT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM SAT...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST
MAINLY FOR TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY QUICKER AND A DIURNAL DELAY AND
DRYING DEWPOINTS. NICE DAY ON TAP FOR EASTERN NC WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL WITH DRY CONDITIONS. LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATERS RANGE 0.70-0.80 INCHES...ROUGHLY 2 SD BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID JUNE. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE MID 80S INLAND. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 ON THE
COAST. LGT AND VRBL WINDS BECOME W THEN SW DURING THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...CLR SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT ALTHOUGH DPTS
GRDLY COME UP WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY LATE FOG
WITH DPTS RISING INTO THE LWR AND MID 60S WITH LGT WINDS EXPECTED.
FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH
MINS FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S...AND AROUND 70 ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...FLAT RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUN
INTO MON WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE BRINGING SWLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. BROAD TROUGHING GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS MON WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO BRING A
THREAT OF ISOL-SCT CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MODEST
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MON NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUE
BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS PW`S
INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.5" WITH THE REGION MOVING INTO FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND DEEPER WITH
A SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY WED AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS
SRN REGIONS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO FOR THE MID
TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 125 PM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC.
ANTICIPATE LIGHT SW WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED MID LEVEL DECK WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN A BIT TOMORROW
YIELDING A MORE GUSTY SW FLOW. DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP YET AGAIN
AROUND 5-6KFT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...PRED VFR EXPECTED SUN INTO MON WITH SWLY FLOW
AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH TUE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WED. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE MON AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE ISOL-SCT
CONVECTION BRINGING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS COME MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM SAT...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE WNW WINDS
10-15 KT N OF OCRACOKE AND WNW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS SOUTH. SEAS
RANGE 2-4 FT IN MEDIUM PERIOD 9 SECOND SWELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT CONTINUING
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-5 FT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFFSHORE SUN
AND MON BRINGING SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-20 KT SUN MORNING A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL TIGHTEN
GRADIENTS BY LATE AFTERNOON WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 15-25
KT...STRONGEST IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND...WHICH CONTINUES INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SEAS AROUND 2-4
FT SUN MORNING INCREASE TO 4-6 FT BY SUN EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
STRONGER WINDS. GRADIENTS RELAX SLIGHTLY MON INTO TUE WITH SW
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY WED WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE AND
PROGGED TO BE AOB 15 KT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF/HPC GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PACKAGE AND CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT THE DETERMINISTIC GFS...
WHICH IS SLOWER AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES
LIFTING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TUE/TUE NIGHT...PRODUCING WINDS UP
TO 30 KT WITH WAVEWATCH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 6-9 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/LEP
MARINE...JAC/SK/DAG