-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 212306
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 705 PM TUESDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT AND MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER EVEN MORE ON NEXT
UPDATE. SOME STORMS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER NEAR THE GULF STREAM BUT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WARM/MUGGY NIGHT UPCOMING
GIVEN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LIGHT SOUTH FLOW AS LOWS
AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
AS TEMPS LOWER TO NEAR DEW POINTS BUT LIGHT WIND SHUD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FOG.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
NC ON WEDNESDAY SO SHUD BE LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER ISOLD/SCTD SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON
THE SEABREEZE BNDRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LESS CLOUDS/PCPN WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND/AROUND
80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THU AS EASTERN NC REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGE OFFSHORE AND A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT
INTO THU AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SW WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THU WITH GOOD LIFT AND
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES. THE MAIN THREAT THU WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF FROM W TO E THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
THURS AND FRI WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX.
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFF THE
COAST...WINDS SHIFTING NW THEN N AND WEAK CAA INITIATING ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH NC/VA FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SAT. WEAK
CAA WILL PERSIST SAT AND SUN WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT AND
WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE...YIELDING NE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S
INLAND...BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE MAY. SOME INLAND AREAS COULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL ROTATE ESE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MON AND INTERACT
WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION MON AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON THROUGH
TUE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM MON AND TUE AS THICKNESS VALUES AND
TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM...CURRENT VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. LIKELY TO SEE MVFR
CIGS REDEVELOP IN THE MOIST BNDRY LAYER LATE TONIGHT AND CUD BE
BRIEF IFR CIGS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
INTO THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU AND
THU NIGHT. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM TUESDAY...A PRETTY MUCH STEADY-STATE MARINE FORECAST
WITH SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS
DURING TIMES OF GREATER MIXING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SEAS REMAIN 3 TO 5 FEET NORTH AND 2 TO 4 FEET SOUTH.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...SW GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL RANGE 10-20 KT WITH SEAS
MOSTLY 3-5 FT. THE GRADIENT PINCHES SLIGHTLY TIGHTER THU AFTERNOON
AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SEAS OF 6-7 FT FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WATERS...AS WELL AS GUSTS TO 25KT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THURS INTO FRI AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WATERS
FRI. WINDS BECOME N/NW FRI EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC/RF
NEAR TERM...CTC/BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/BTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/BTC/CQD