Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FGUS72 KMHX 191325
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NCC013-031-049-055-061-079-095-103-107-117-133-137-147-177-187-
211330-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
925 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015

...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL RISK FOR THE RIVERS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN THROUGH APRIL...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN
EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS
INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID
MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.

FOR NORTH CAROLINA...STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...THOUGH MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE HINTS AT CONTINUED WET WEATHER THROUGH APRIL. FOR THE
COASTAL REGION RIVERS...FLOOD RISK MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED
TO NORMAL CONSIDERING CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...RECENT RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH APRIL.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED
ON SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...IS RUNNING CLOSE
TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
PIEDMONT REGIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW PACK...NO HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK AT THIS TIME.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE A CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN. THE LATEST CPC 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
END OF MARCH.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...BASED ON CPC LONG
LEAD OUTLOOK...ENSO IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. THE LATEST
CPC 3-MONTH OUTLOOK INDICATES MOSTLY EQUAL CHANCES AT ABOVE...BELOW
OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH MAY.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

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