Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FGUS72 KMHX 052135
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NCC013-031-049-055-061-079-095-103-107-117-133-137-147-177-187-
072145-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
435 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH APRIL...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN
EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS
INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID
MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.

FOR NORTH CAROLINA...STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...THOUGH
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE HINTS AT CONTINUED
WET WEATHER THROUGH APRIL. THEREFORE...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE
NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE RIVER FLOODS TO
BE CLOSE TO TYPICAL THROUGH APRIL...OR CLIMATOLOGICALLY OBSERVED.
FOR THE COASTAL REGION RIVERS...FLOOD RISK MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
COMPARED TO NORMAL CONSIDERING CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...RECENT
RAINFALL AND EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH APRIL.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF MARCH 2ND ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW PACK...THERE IS NO HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IN THE
REGION.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE A CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN. THE LATEST CPC 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID
MARCH.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...BASED ON CPC LONG
LEAD OUTLOOK...ENSO IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. THE LATEST
CPC 3-MONTH OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST...PRIMARILY BASED ON CLIMATE MODELS
RATHER THAN ENSO.  SEE THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE FOR
MORE DETAILS.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY EARLY
MARCH 20TH.

$$



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