Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FGUS72 KMHX 231310
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NCC013-031-049-055-061-079-095-103-107-117-133-137-147-177-187-
061315-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
810 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL
POTENTIAL OF RIVER FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CAROLINA...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN
EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS
INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID
MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.

FOR NORTH CAROLINA...WITH NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOWS CONTINUING
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND AT LEAST NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ANTICIPATED...THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF
THOSE RIVER FLOODS IS LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO THE TYPICAL YEAR...OR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY OBSERVED. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LONG TERM ENSEMBLE
STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS WELL. THESE ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS
CAN BE FOUND ON THE WATER.WEATHER.GOV WEB SITE UNDER THE
EXPERIMENTAL LONG RANGE RIVER FLOOD RISK TAB.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF JANUARY 21ST ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
LARGER RIVER BASINS IN NORTH CAROLINA.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW PACK...THERE IS NO HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IN THE
REGION AS OF JANUARY 20TH.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
AFTER THE WEEKEND...COLD AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
LIMITED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. LATEST WPC AND CPC FORECASTS
ALSO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...AN EL NINO WATCH
CONTINUES AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC MAY REACH WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS. BASED ON
THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSO CONDITION AS WELL AS THE LATEST
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST...THERE IS EQUAL CHANCES AT
BELOW...NEAR NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM FEBRUARY
THROUGH APRIL. SEE THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK IS UPDATED EVERY TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY EARLY
FEBRUARY 6TH.

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