000
FXUS63 KMKX 161500 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR DAYTIME HOURS. FINE-TUNED
TONIGHT WITH HOURLY GRID BREAKDOWNS TO SLOWLY BRING CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN MY
COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH AND
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING CLOUDINESS
LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF MADISON TO MILWAUKEE AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
SYSTEM EXPECTED ON MONDAY APPROACHES. SOME MODELS HINT AT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT NORTH OF MADISON/MILWAUKEE AREA...WHILE
OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY`S COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IN ANY CASE...MOSTLY VFR UNTIL COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH STORMS ON MONDAY.

.PREVIOUS FORECAST...ISSUED 443 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

MANY AREAS PICKED UP A QUICK 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LINE OF
CONVECTION ALONG CONVERGENCE WITH NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION IN ILLINOIS WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS IN TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ILLINOIS MESO HIGH AND TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN.

WILL HAVE A DRY DAY TODAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY STAYS NORTH IN FAST
WNW FLOW. 925 MB TEMPERATURE AROUND 20C AND POTENTIAL 2 DEGREE
SUPERADIABATIC BUMP BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY. WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP LAKE BREEZE AT BAY TO ALLOW THE 80S RIGHT
UP TO THE SHORE.

WILL LIMIT POPS IN THE NORTHERN CWA TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z MONDAY AS DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME
FOR PCPN TO REACH SURFACE AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SLIDE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. 925 THERMAL RIDGING
INTO SRN WI THROUGH MIDDAY OR SO...THEN 925 FRONT HITS...QUICKER ON
THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF THAN THE 00Z NAM. WINDS SHIFT ABRUPTLY
NORTHEAST. ENOUGH BUILDUP OF CAPE AHEAD OF FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TO
WARRANT CONCERN FOR TSRA BUILDUP AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SEEING CAPES
GETTING OVER 1K J/KG WITH CWASP NUMBERS EXCEEDING 70 ON THE
NAM...WITH LESSER VALUES ON THE OTHER MODELS.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850 THERMAL TROUGH WITH NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOL
SUMMER DAY WITH LOCALES IN THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LAKE LIKELY NOT TO
GET OUT OF THE 60S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THOUGH ALL MODELS CONCUR THAT BEST FORCING WILL CIRCUMNAVIGATE
WI WITH QPF ACROSS CENTRAL IL THROUGH IOWA INTO SRN MN.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST THIS PERIOD ALLOWING FOR A
WARMER AIRMASS TO RETURN. CONSENSUS OF PROGS IS KEEP PRECIP FROM
IOWA INTO MN AND POSSIBLY NRN WI...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. BETTER
LOW LEVEL JET DOES REMAIN WEST SO LIKE THE DRY LOOK AT THIS POINT.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE
TRENDS. A FEW RUNS AGO THE GFS WAS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE HAVING MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. 00Z GFS
BUILDS THE WARMTH DURING THE PERIOD KEEPING TSRA NORTH OR WEST.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE PROGRESSIVE ENERGY FEATURING A LOW
LEVEL JET THAT LEANS MORE INTO SRN WI THAN THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE
LLJ AXIS MORE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED AND LESS
PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING BETTER FORCING...MOISTURE/SPEED CONVERGENCE TO
OUR WEST. ECMWF SHOWS A WARM FRONT/WAA TYPE EVENT FRIDAY WITH A LOW
TRAVERSING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN VERSUS THE
QUIET BUT WARMER GFS. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS WHICH
ACCOUNTS FOR THE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN PORTRAYED BY THE ECMWF.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

ANY SPOTTY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE RESIDUAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AFTER LAST NIGHT/S RAIN WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS TODAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN AND
DEEP MIXING...THOUGH LINGERING HIGHER DEW POINTS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF BKN VFR CUMULUS AT KENW. NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH BEGIN DROPPING THROUGH NRN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...
BUT FORCING AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF TAF SITES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

MARINE...

KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON FOG OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THAT IS
COMING CLOSE TO SHEBOYGAN. EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO KEEP ANY FOG
OVER THE OPEN WATERS...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.
COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TOWARDS DAWN
NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON...AND TO THE REST OF SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME
THOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH AND CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER LAKES. GUSTS CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS WITH
INITIAL SURGE AND IF GRADIENT IS SLOWER TO WEAKEN THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BUILD HIGH WAVES
THAT REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

ADDED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR
UPDATE...KAPELA