Text Products for FWS Issued by MKX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FNUS73 KMKX 231140
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Brigham Nursery Unit...Dane County Parks
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
640 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 23.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty southwest winds are expected at ignition, becoming west this
afternoon. Mixing heights around 1400 feet AGL at ignition should
quickly rise to 5000 feet AGL by midday and over 8000 feet AGL
this afternoon. Fair smoke dispersal at ignition should quickly
become excellent by midday and this afternoon.

Relative humidity values around 50 percent at ignition should
quickly drop into the 30 to 35 percent range this afternoon. It is
possible for these values to drop into the 25 to 30 percent
range. This may lead to elevated fire weather conditions this
afternoon.

Scattered showers and some thunderstorms are then expected with a
cold front by middle afternoon into early evening. Winds will
shift north behind the cold front this evening, with gusty north
winds tonight bringing colder air.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Temperature.........57 at ignition...Max 65.
RH..................51 percent at ignition...Min 32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 10 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise West winds 8 to 16 mph.
                    Gusts up to 31 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 8300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 18 mph increasing to 26 to 33 mph
                    late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /18000 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /91700 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (146900 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........39  66  72  79  85  71  58  44  53  61  70  56
Weather cov.....                                SCH CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............53  52  55  57  60  62  64  65  65  65  64  62
RH..............57  61  55  51  46  41  37  34  33  33  34  36
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   8   9   10  12  13  14  15  16  16  16  16
20 FT wind gust.11  12  14  16  18  19  21  23  24  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.9 4.0 6.1 8.3 7.7 7.2 6.6 5.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.16  14  14  15  18  26  28  29  31  32  32  33
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10007   5   11  18  30  92  147 206 208 201 186 147

$$
Forecaster...Wood
Requested by...Lars Higdon
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411919.0/MKX
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL higdon.lars@countyofdane.com
National Weather Service National Headquarters
