Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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650
FXUS62 KMLB 180144
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
844 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concern tonight will continue to be fog development
late in the overnight hours through early morning Sunday. MOS
guidance continues to show best potential for dense fog/stratus
moving into Lake County, and eastward through the I-4 corridor
and toward the Volusia coast. Earlier runs of the local WRF and
HRRR also agreed quite well on this scenario. However, the most
recent runs of both models have now backed off on fog development
quite significantly, keeping any areas of dense fog west and north
of Lake and Volusia counties.

With favorable setup of light winds and mostly clear skies in
place, will keep areas of fog mentioned in the forecast for
northern areas, with patchy fog farther south. However, the recent
trends in the models do leave room for a little more uncertainty
in amount of fog coverage for late tonight. Regardless, localized
visibilities of a quarter of a mile or less will at least be
possible. Favorable radiational cooling conditions should again
allow temperatures to fall into the upper 50s to low 60s over
much of the area overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to persist through 06z, then
fog/stratus development overnight will reduce cig/vis as low as
IFR/LIFR through early Sunday morning. Best potential for these
conditions will be across northern TAF sites, with more tempo
reductions to IFR/MVFR from patchy ground fog from KMLB-KSUA. Fog
and stratus will burn off into the morning, with VFR conditions
then expected to prevail through the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...There is a potential for dense fog to push off the
Volusia county coast again early Sun morning. Otherwise, boating
conditions will remain favorable tonight through tomorrow with
winds 10 knots or less and seas 2-3 feet. A slight increase in
onshore flow to 10-12 knots is indicated Sun afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  78  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  59  84  62  84 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  61  81  65  81 /   0  10  10   0
VRB  59  82  65  81 /   0  10  10   0
LEE  62  83  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  82  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  83  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  58  82  64  81 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Weitlich/Smith



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