Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 171933
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
233 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Above Normal Temperatures through Next Week...

TONIGHT...The pressure gradient will remain weak as the axis of a
surface high pressure ridge over the southern peninsula possibly
nudges northward into central Florida, while a frontal trough over
the southeast states pushes eastward into the Atlantic. The
resultant light winds will bring a risk of dense fog again.  The
HRRR and local WRF models show widespread low visibility in nearly
the same area as this morning.  Therefore will mention areas of fog
across much of the north half.

SUNDAY...Early morning dense fog is possible around I-4 and points
westward. Otherwise, we`ll be starting off with less than 1 inch
of precipitable water, then only slight moistening is indicated
as the gradient wind becomes onshore due to high pressure
building to the north behind the exiting frontal trough. Don`t see
enough moisture for any significant Atlantic/coastal showers.
High temps on the coast should reach the lower 80s again, except
for upper 70s in coastal Volusia, while the interior continues to
have highs in the lower to mid 80s.

SUNDAY NIGHT...Patchy fog overnight, locally dense, with some low
stratus clouds will again be a problem, especially into the
interior overnight and early Mon morning. Unseasonably warm
temperatures continue with highs in the L80s along the coast and
M80s inland. Overnight lows in the 60s.

MONDAY-SATURDAY...Not much change in the extended over the past
24 hours. The strong western Atlc mid-level ridging remains in
firm control of the weather pattern across the FL peninsula and
southeast U.S. as it slowly retrogrades into the GOMEX by the end
of the week while on a slow weakening trend. The continued lack of
mid/upper support will continue to keep any surface fronts north
of the area. While short- lived and occasional bouts of deeper
moisture undercut the strong/deep high pressure, PoPs will
generally remain at or below 20pct (generous) thru the period.
Onshore flow at the surface continues with surface ridging focus
north of central FL. Highs/lows remain consistent and well above
normal. The greatest weather concern remains fog/low cloud
potential each night/morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR, then after midnight, widespread LIFR is possible again near and
west of I-4 with burn off time close to 15z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...There is a potential for dense fog to push off
the Volusia county coast again early Sun morning. Otherwise,
boating conditions will continue good thru Sun with winds 10
knots or less and seas 2-3 feet. A slight increase in onshore flow
to 10-12 knots is indicated Sun afternoon.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...Surface ridging will develop north of the
waters next week. This will keep a steady onshore (SE) flow across
the forecast area. Wind speeds generally 10-15 kts, but could
occasionally approach 15-18 kts over the Gulf Stream south of the
Cape. Seas generally 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft Gulf Stream.
Shower chances remain at only slight chance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  78  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  61  84  62  84 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  62  81  65  81 /   0  10  10   0
VRB  61  82  65  81 /   0  10  10   0
LEE  62  83  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  61  82  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  63  83  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  60  82  64  81 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lascody
LONG TERM....Johnson


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.