Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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050
FXUS62 KMLB 122025
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
330 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Current...Reinforcing dry cold front currently approaching a JAX-GNV-
CDRF1 line. Early afternoon temps in the L70s along with west winds
gusting into the U20-L30s areawide. Shallow low level moisture over
central Florida is producing some diurnal stratocumulus with slightly
higher coverage of clouds from KISM-KTIX southward as of 200 PM.

Tonight...Front will sweep southward across ECFL through late this
evening, with cooler/drier air quickly scouring out any residual
cloud cover that linger past sunset. Temps will drop into the U30s
to L40s across all but the immediate Treasure Coast, which will be a
few degrees warmer. WCI`s progged to briefly reach 32-34F around
sunrise, so coverage/duration won`t quite be enough to warrant WC
Advisory issuance. However lowest WCI values near criteria will be
mentioned for all zones.

Wednesday...Cold/dry advection continues with a steady NW wind near
10 MPH. Max temps will range from near 60 north to around 65 south.

Wednesday night...Surface high pressure is forecast to build across
the southern peninsula through the night with the coldest readings
in the upper 30s expected across the southern interior. Stronger low
level westerly flow to 20-25 knots at H9 across nrn sections will
keep the low levels more mixed with lows in the U30s-L40s.

Thursday-Friday...The surface ridge across south Florida in the
morning will transition eastward with low level SW flow expected.
This should allow afternoon high temps to warm into the lower 70s.
The airmass will be initially dry though some cloudiness will move
toward nrn sections by late afternoon from the Gulf of Mexico with a
strong upper level jet strengthening from TX into the Southeast.
Small chance for showers far north Thursday night as shallow
advection occurs ahead of the next front. The global model consensus
has trended toward the slower/drier ECM for Friday. Have cut back
on numbers by about 10-20 percent, especially central-south. Mins
Thursday night L-M50s with maxes in the L-M70s.

Saturday-Tuesday...Surface high pressure near the area Saturday will
move eastward by Sunday with return flow developing. Temps will
remain on the mild side to end with weekend with highs in the 70s
and lows in the 50s to lower 60s along the coast. Will keep the next
chance for showers Tuesday in line with the GFS for now, with highs
into 70s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN050-060 from KISM-KTIX southward scattering
out around sunset as skies quickly clear out to the north. KMLB-KSUA
corridor will clear out from NW-SE a couple hours later.

&&

.MARINE...Tonight-Wednesday...Made some adjustments based on 12Z
model and wave guidance. Magnitude and duration of peak winds/seas
for this event is not as robust as earlier indicated. This allows us
to trim the SCA back in time for both the nearshore (4AM Wednesday)
and offshore (10AM) legs. Still looking at 20-25KT W-WNW winds with
seas peaking at 6-8FT well offshore. However, NW winds and seas are
now progged subside much more quickly...to 10-15KT/3-5FT Wednesday
afternoon.

Wednesday night-Friday...High pressure ridge slides south of the
local waters, which allows winds to back to W-SW 12-17 knots by
Thursday, then weaken a little to 10-15KT through Friday. Seas 2-
3FT seas near shore and up to 4 ft offshore Thursday, subsiding to
2-3FT Friday.

This weekend...Another front is forecast to move into the waters
Friday night, then stall/wash out over the central Peninsula this
weekend as it gets bridged by high pressure and onshore/easterly
flow. this results in less of an increase in winds/seas, given
there won`t be a clean frontal passage. Seas generally 2-3FT near
shore and 3-4FT offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  40  60  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  44  63  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  39  64  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  41  64  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  41  62  44  70 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  41  63  42  71 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  45  62  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  40  64  40  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM Wednesday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM Wednesday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

$$

SHORT TERM...Cristaldi
MID TERM...Smith
AVIATION/LONG TERM....Johnson



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