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000
FXUS62 KMLB 171413
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE STRONGER WRLY FLOW ABV H60 THAN
24HRS AGO...BUT STILL QUITE WEAK THRU THE H85-H60 LYR. H100-H70
WINDS HAVE VEERED FROM SE TO S IN RESPONSE TO THE ATLC HIGH PRES
RIDGE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL FL. PWAT VALUES BTWN 1.7"-1.8" OVER
CENTRAL/NORTH FL... DECREASING TO ARND 1.4" OVER SOUTH FL.

RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT S THRU THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES EAST AND MERGES WITH A BROAD
TROF OVER THE NE CONUS/ERN CANADA. SWRLY STEERING FLOW WILL
PREVAIL...STRONGER OVER THE N HALF OF THE PENINSULA GIVEN THE
TIGHTER PGRAD AND FURTHER DISTANCE FROM THE RIDGE AXIS.

WRLY FLOW REGIMES FAVOR THE E FL PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...
SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY DVLP BY EARLY AFTN AND INCREASE THRU LATE AFTN.
INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR S OF THE ORLANDO METROPLEX GIVEN THE
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT`S PRECIP. SEABREEZE SHOULD
PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND S OF CAPE CANAVERAL GIVEN THE WEAKER SWRLY
FLOW...COLLISION BNDRY SHOULD LINE UP FROM NE VOLUSIA COUNTY TO THE
N SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM MOTION E/NE ARND BTWN 5-10KTS.

A FEW STRONG TSTMS PSBL AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY (H50  ARND -7C)...WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SPARKING EARLY
CONVECTION OVER THE WRN PANHANDLE COULD ADD SOME OF ITS ENERGY TO
THE MIX OVER CENTRAL FL BY LATE AFTN. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE M/U70S
AND CAPE VALUES ARND 2500J/KG WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FUEL FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION. SVR WX THREAT WILL BE MUTED...HOWEVER...WITH
H85-H70 AND H85-H50 LAPSE RATES AOB 6C/KM.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERATE WARM TEMPS AREAWIDE...MAXES IN THE L90S
ALONG THE COAST...M90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 17/16Z...VFR ALL SITES...CIGS AOA FL100 N OF KISM-KMLB. BTWN
17/16Z-17/18Z...SFC WNDSHFT FM S TO E/SE KDAB-KSUA ASSOCD WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS
DVLPG ALL SITES. BTWN 17/18Z-17/22Z...SFC WNDSHFT FROM S/SW TO SE AT
KSFB/KMCO/KISM AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND...SEABREEZE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH KLEE...INCRSG MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS COVERAGE FM
ISOLD TO SCT ALL SITES...CONVECTION CONTG THRU 18/03Z DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E. AFT 18/03Z...VFR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE
ACRS THE LCL ATLC...SFC/BNDRY LYR WNDS BCMG LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE
NEAR THE COAST BY MIDDAY AS THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE DVLPS AND
PUSHES INLAND. DATA BUOYS MEASURING 2FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND 3FT
OFFSHORE...MAINLY IN AN ERLY SWELL...BUOYS AND C-MAN STATIONS
MEASURING WINDS BLO 10KTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVED DATA...WAVE
MODEL APPEARS TO BE ABOUT A FOOT HIGH...WILL MAKE APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS MOVING
OFFSHORE THIS AFTN/EVNG...ESPECIALLY N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST....BRAGAW
IMPACT WX...LASCODY