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000
FXUS62 KMLB 180732
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
332 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE AXIS OF A WEAKENING BERMUDA RIDGE WL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
RIDGE WL REMAIN PROMINENT ENOUGH HOWEVER TO PROVIDE MODEST SE
FLOW OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH BRINGING MOISTURE N INTO THE AREA.
THE GENERALLY LIGHT WIND REGIME WL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF BREEZE
BOUNDARIES ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH A TARGETED COLLISION ROUGHLY
WEST OF ORLANDO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHCS WL BE HIGHER
INLAND DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH AN ANTICIPATED
LATE AFTN COLLISION NR LAKE COUNTY/WRN ORANGE COUNTIES.
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHCS WL OCCUR WITH COASTAL SECTIONS LIKELY TO SEE
BEST RAIN CHC DURING MORNING WITH MARINE SHRA AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AND INLAND MOVING EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY. HV INCLUDED NO
MORE THAN 20 PCT AT COAST AND 30 INLAND.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS MAINLY INLAND WILL WIND DOWN BY
AROUND 10 PM WITH DISSIPATING CLOUDINESS PAST MIDNIGHT AND TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND 70 BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

SUN-SAT...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. MID LEVEL CAP THAT WAS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY ALLOWING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. DEEPENING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS PULLING MORE MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. GREATEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE MID WEEK WHICH
WOULD CORRELATE TO THE HIGHEST POP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT. MID LEVEL
DRY AIR RETURNS BY FRIDAY BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SEA/LAKE BREEZES INTERACTING SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DROPS OFF TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL CAP/S EFFECT TAKES
CHARGE. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR. DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID
80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST/BEACHES. MID AND UPPER 80S AWAY FROM
THE COAST TO WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
HAD MORE TIME TO RISE BEFORE THE SEA BREEZES PUSH THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH ISOLD MORNING SHRA ALONG CST. ISOLD/SCT SHRA AND TS
MNLY INLAND PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR FM 18Z-23Z WITH DECREASING
ACTIVITY AFT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AVERAGING 3 TO 4 FT IN SE FLOW INTO SUNDAY. LOCAL WIND WAVE
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST PREVALENT COMPONENT.

SUN-WED...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE. A 2 TO 3 FOOT LONG
PERIOD SWELL COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW TO
MODERATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  70  85  70 /  20  20  30  20
MCO  90  69  89  69 /  20  20  30  20
MLB  86  72  86  73 /  20  20  30  10
VRB  84  71  85  72 /  20  20  30  20
LEE  90  70  89  71 /  30  20  40  20
SFB  90  70  90  70 /  20  20  30  20
ORL  89  71  90  71 /  20  20  30  20
FPR  85  70  85  72 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....WIMMER