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000
FXUS62 KMLB 131453 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES 1.40 INCHES. A LITTLE HIGHER MOISTURE EXISTS TO OUR
WEST (TAMPA) AND SOUTH (MIAMI) BASED ON THEIR SOUNDINGS AND THE
CURRENT HI RES VIS SAT IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS AS CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD
IS DEVELOPING IN THOSE AREAS FIRST. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS
ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THIS IS PRODUCING A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL TURN ONSHORE IN A SEA BREEZE...FIRST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
THEN LAST ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE
HIGHER MOISTURE EXISTS AND WILL MAINTAIN 30 POPS FOR OKEECHOBEE...ST
LUCIE AND MARTIN...20 POPS ELSEWHERE WITH ONE EXCEPTION. GFS AND
LOCAL WRF MODELS ARE INSISTING CONVECTION WILL INITIATE OVER
NORTHERN BREVARD EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS SEEMS COUNTERINTUITIVE GIVEN
THE DRIER AIR SEEN IN THE WEATHER BALLOON DATA FROM THERE EARLY THIS
MORNING. BUT GIVEN THE NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP FROM THE
INDIAN AND BANANA RIVERS AND INTERACTIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE...HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BUMP POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR NORTH BREVARD.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 90S INTERIOR...LOWER 90S
VOLUSIA COAST AND MAINLAND COASTAL COUNTIES...UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE 10 KNOTS MLB-SUA BY 17Z.
KDAB MAY SEE A LATE WIND SHIFT AFT 20Z. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AFT 18Z MCO
NORTHWARD. HIGHER COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS JUST
INLAND FROM THE TREASURE COAST. STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE (W-SW) FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE (E-SE) NEAR THE COAST
FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD BY 1PM...AND PROBABLY ALONG THE VOLUSIA
COAST LATE. SEAS 2-3 FEET...EXCEPT AROUND 1 FT SOUTH OF FT PIERCE
INLET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  73  91  73 /  20  10  20  20
MCO  94  72  93  73 /  20  10  20  20
MLB  90  74  92  73 /  20  10  20  20
VRB  89  73  90  71 /  30  10  20  20
LEE  94  74  93  75 /  20  10  20  20
SFB  95  74  95  75 /  20  10  20  20
ORL  94  75  94  75 /  20  10  20  20
FPR  89  73  90  71 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY