Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 140732
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
230 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Currently...Surface high pressure was located over the southern
Florida peninsula with early morning temperatures in the lower to
mid 40s across much of east central Florida with the coldest
readings across the southern interior to Ft Pierce in the upper 30s
at 2 am. Skies were mainly clear with some scattered cirrus across
north Florida. Patchy frost is expected early this morning across
srn interior sections.

Today...The surface ridge will extend eastward from south FL toward
the nrn Bahamas today with low level W-SW winds north of the ridge
axis. This will allow high temperatures to reach the lower 70s
across much of the area. Low level westerly flow at 15-20 knots in
the H9-H8 layer will advect some gulf marine stratocu onshore across
nrn sections in the afternoon bringing a period of considerable
cloudiness from Lake county eastward. Low levels will still remain
rather dry from Okeechobee county to the Treasure coast where
mostly sunny skies are expected into the afternoon.

Tonight...The surface ridge will remain from south Florida and
extend eastward into the Atlantic. This will allow for light
southwest flow and milder low temps in the 50s nrn sections to mid
to upper 40s across the south closer to the ridge. Short range
guidance indicates a period of enhanced cloudiness will linger
across the nrn half of the forecast area with a persistent stratocu
deck in the low level WSW flow.

Fri-Sun...Mid level trough axis moves into the Southeast U.S. late
week, shifting a weak cool front slowly through the region Friday
night into early Saturday. Models continue to generate a few
showers, mainly across northern portions of central Florida ahead of
this boundary on Friday. Will leave rain chances around 20 percent
for this area, as overall moisture is fairly low and limited to the
lower levels. Dry conditions are then expected into the weekend as
boundary moves south, stalls and weakens near Lake Okeechobee. Highs
will range from the low to mid 70s Friday, dropping slightly over
northern areas behind the weak front Saturday, and then warm into
the upper 70s over much of the region Sunday. Lows will generally
remain in the 50s Fri/Sat nights and then are expected to be milder
in the low/mid 60s Sun night.

Mon-Wed...Models are coming into better agreement into early next
week with timing of next frontal boundary to move through the
region. The ECMWF has trended more toward the GFS solution keeping a
stronger mid level ridge in place across South Florida and Caribbean
region. This will keep boundary and deeper moisture/rain chances
north of the region, with warm and generally dry conditions in place
across east central Florida through at least Tuesday. Ridge is then
shunted southward as S/W moves through the southern U.S., pushing
front through the area. ECMWF is drier with this frontal passage
than the GFS, but for now will keep a slight chance for showers
across much of east central Florida for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/SKC through around 12z. SCT-BKN035-040 expected to
KLEE vcnty around 15z then moving eastward along and north of KISM-
KTIX line from 15z-21z into the afternoon. Areas of VFR CIGS around
4 kft will linger along and north of a KISM-KMLB line into the
evening and overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Westerly wind will be slightly stronger to 10-15 knots
farther north of the ridge axis across the nrn waters to 5-10 knots
across the srn waters. Seas 2-3 ft near shore to 3-4 ft offshore.

Tonight...W/SW winds to 10-15 knots nrn and central waters will
continue to 5-10 knots from Sebastian to Jupiter Inlet. Seas 2 ft
near shore to 3 ft offshore for the overnight hours.

Tonight-Thursday...Winds/seas will continue to subside as a high
pressure ridge builds over south Florida and then expands eastward
across the Bahamas. Northwest winds will back to westerly and
decrease from 12-17KT to around 7-12KT...the highest speeds in this
range occurring north of Cape Canaveral. Seas subsiding to 2FT near
shore as 3-4FT offshore.

Friday-Monday...A weak cold front is then forecast to move through
the region Friday night into Saturday, switching winds briefly out
of the north and building seas to 4-5 feet offshore. High pressure
building offshore north of the area will then allow winds to quickly
veer onshore into Sunday, with speeds forecast to remain less than
15 knots and seas around 2-3 feet.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Modest low level moistening with W/SW flow off the Gulf will
keep Min RHS from around 50 percent north to 40-45 percent across
the far south.

Thursday-Friday...Increasing southwest flow emanating from the Gulf
of Mexico will provide shallow low level air mass moistening. Expect
min RH values in the M40s Thursday and U40s-L50s on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  53  74  53 /   0  10  20  10
MCO  72  54  74  55 /   0  10  20  10
MLB  71  52  75  57 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  71  49  74  56 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  71  55  74  55 /  10  10  20  10
SFB  72  54  74  54 /   0  10  20  10
ORL  72  57  74  57 /   0  10  20  10
FPR  71  47  75  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Volkmer
MID-LONG TERM....Weitlich


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