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000
FXUS62 KMLB 191906
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
306 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...


...Dry and Warm Weather Continues with Near Record Highs This
Weekend...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Currently-Tonight... High pressure (1020mb) remains over the
western Atlantic, as well as over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The
sea breeze is currently pushing inland with east to southeast
winds at 5-10mph across east central Florida. The dry and quiet
weather for east central Florida continues with Goes-16 satellite
imagery showing partly cloudy skies and scattered low to mid level
clouds. Current temperatures are in the low to upper 80s with dew
point temperatures in the low 60s to upper 60s.

Winds are expected to become light and variable overnight with
patchy fog forecast to develop, mainly between 4am and 8am across
Lake, western Orange, northwest Osceola, western Seminole, and
northwest Volusia counties. Visibilities will have the potential
to drop to 1 mile or less at times. If you encounter fog, remember
to use your low beam headlights and leave plenty of distance
between you and the vehicle in front of you. Overnight lows are
forecast to drop into the low to upper 60s under mostly clear
skies. Although, scattered low stratus will be possible into
Saturday morning north of I-4.

Saturday... High pressure over the western Atlantic and eastern
Gulf of Mexico will continue to influence east central Florida
into Saturday. Offshore west to northwest winds at around 5-10mph
are expected to veer onshore into the afternoon as the east coast
sea breeze pushes inland and eventually reaches the western
portions of central Florida into the evening hours. Afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and in the low
to mid 90s well inland west of I-95 are forecast with heat index
values around the same values.

Sat Night-Sun Night...Zonal flow aloft with occasional shortwave
impulses traversing the region with a vigorous mid-level low
strengthening and swinging into the Tennessee Valley late in the
period. At the surface, a weakening pre-frontal trough to the north
will lie quasi-stationary, but then get a kick southward into north-
central FL Sun night. Light offshore flow, except onshore with sea
breeze formation Sun afternoon along the immediate coast, will veer
NW/N Sun late overnight across most of ECFL. We currently maintain a
SCHC for showers and lightning storms - mainly across the I-4
corridor Sun night as moisture gets a modest bump upward. Overnight
lows well into the 60s both Sat/Sun night. High temperatures, near
records, forecast again for Sun - in the U80s to around 90F at the
coast and L90s (perhaps a few M90s) inland. Forecast low humidities
will keep Heat Index values close to actual temps.

Mon-Fri...The aforementioned boundary will get a bigger kick
southward thru central/south FL on Mon, with aid from an upper level
trough, followed by a period of weak high pressure. The mid-level
flow stays W/NW thru the period, but absent of any decent shortwave
activity. SCT showers and ISOLD lightning storms forecast for Mon.
Dry over land Mon night-Wed morning, then perhaps some ISOLD
convective activity Wed/Thu aftn/eve due to an increase and moisture
and sea breeze collisions for mainly the Treasure Coast, though the
ECMWF is the drier of the medium range model solutions presently.
Confidence low though and otherwise dry conditions mostly, after-
all, we are still in the climatologically driest month of the year.

A small cool-down for Mon, with U70s-L80s along/north of I-4 and M-
U80s southward toward Okeechobee/Martin-Saint Lucie counties. U70s-
L80s along the coast on Tue with M80s well into the interior. A
warming trend Wed-Fri as highs along the coast gravitate toward the
L80s with M-U80s into the interior. For mins, L60s most places Tue-
Thu mornings, except U50s for portions for north Lake/NW Volusia
counties. Otherwise a gradual increase thru the 60s for the
remainder of the period for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Primarily VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.
However, patchy fog is possible at KLEE which will have the
potential to reduce visibility to 3 miles or less at times
Saturday morning. Offshore west-northwest winds will veer onshore with
the east coast sea breeze pushing inland into the afternoon at
5-10kts Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Currently-Saturday.... Favorable boating conditions are forecast
through Saturday afternoon with high pressure over the western
Atlantic. Offshore west to southwest winds will veer east-
southeast into the afternoon Saturday at around 8-15kts with the
east coast sea breeze. Seas will build to 1-3ft with up to 4 ft
offshore and nearshore southern Brevard and Treasure Coast waters
into Saturday morning.

Sat Night-Wed...High pressure will keep a pre-frontal trough
north of the local waters thru late Sun, then a push from energy
aloft will finally force this feature south down the peninsula on
Mon. Weak high pressure will follow the front Tue-Wed. We may see
SCT showers and ISOLD lightning storms enter the picture Sun night
(north) - Mon night surrounding the front. We will see another
sea breeze on Sun, but stiffer WRLY flow may keep this feature
pinned closer along the coast. Southerly winds will gradually veer
ahead of the approaching boundary, then continue NW/N behind it
on Mon, transitioning further to NERLY on Tue, E/ESE Tue night-
Wed. Speeds approach 14-18 kts offshore Sat overnight, and may
increase 15-20 kts late Sun-Sun night, but otherwise are largely
10-16 kts for in between and Mon-Wed. Seas mainly 2-4 ft, then 3-5
ft (6 ft Gulf Stream) Mon night-Tue night, becoming 3-5 ft early
Wed - gradually 2- 4 ft again areawide by Wed afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Saturday (modified previous discussion) A broad area of high
pressure will remain in place across the Florida peninsula through
the weekend. Dry conditions will continue across east central
Florida as a result. Minimum RH values are forecast to remain in
the 30 to 45 percent range west of I-95 across the interior
Saturday with winds continuing to be light out of the west-
southwest and becoming variable at times, until the east coast sea
breeze develops and moves inland, leading to winds turning to out
of the south-southeast at around 10 mph.

Sun-Thu...High pressure will keep a weak frontal boundary north of
the area for one more day, Sun, as min RH values plummet into the M-
U30s W of I-95 and 40-45pct eastward toward the coast. ISOLD showers
and lightning storms forecast Sun night I-4 corridor northward, then
SCT showers/ISOLD lightning storms for Mon as the front moves
through. Dry conditions then return for Tue-Thu, with min RH values
falling into the M-U30s over the interior each afternoon. Wind
speeds do not look to be an issue, but there will be variability in
wind direction over the extended surrounding pre-frontal, post-
frontal, and high pressure moving back into the region following the
front. Significant Fire Potential remains Moderate to High thru the
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Highs will remain above to well above normal this weekend,
reaching the mid 80s to around 90 degrees along the coast and in
the low 90s over the interior (mid 90s possible inland on
Saturday). These values will be near daily record highs over the
next couple of days.

Record Highs for April 20 and 21 and Last Year Set:

               APR 20TH  APR 21ST
Daytona        95 1968   89 2002
Leesburg       93 2006   93 1968
Sanford        94 2006   93 2006
Orlando        96 1908   96 1935
Melbourne      91 1944   92 1944
Vero Beach     90 1968   91 1970
Ft. Pierce     92 1968   90 2006


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  90  64  88 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  66  93  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
MLB  66  87  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  63  90  65  91 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  64  90  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  65  92  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  67  92  68  90 /   0  10   0  10
FPR  63  90  65  90 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fehling
LONG TERM...Sedlock
AVIATION...Fehling