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000
FXUS62 KMLB 131829
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
229 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TUE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS AROUND THE VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHWARD. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST AND INFLUENCE COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 MPH AND 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS
SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHEAST ON TUE 10-15
MPH. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL BEFORE SHIPPING THE ZONES FORECAST
AS TO WHETHER TO KEEP A SMALL POP IN FOR MARTIN COUNTY BEFORE
SUNSET. OTHERWISE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING AND THE FRONT LOOK TO BE CONFINED FURTHER SOUTHWARD.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY ON TUE. SKIES CONTINUE TO THIN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON TUE.

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND
JUST INLAND OF THE VOLUSIA COAST. A FEW LOWER 50 DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MILD
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND THEREFORE WILL REALIZE LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S WITH A FEW MIDDLE 60S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST ST. LUCIE
AND EASTERN MARTIN COUNTIES.

WED/WED NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY E/ESE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO
WED NIGHT. THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER FL WED FROM THE S
CENTRAL GULF WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND PWATS .8 TO .9 INCHES.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S COAST TO MID 80S
INTERIOR WITH ONSHORE WINDS TO 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS WED
NIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

THU-SUN...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA...RESULTING IN A WEAK PGRAD ACRS THE FL PENINSULA.
THIS WILL ALLOW BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEABREEZES TO FORM AND
PUSH WELL INLAND. TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD AS THE DRY AIR SLOWLY
MODIFIES...RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVG BY THE WEEKEND.

DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL NOT RETURN IN SUFFICIENT QUANTITY TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SLGT CHC POPS THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A
A REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE DRY AIR CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH THE
CONTINENTAL RIDGE AND THAT TRANSITION TO THE WET SEASON TYPICALLY
OCCURS THRU THE LATTER HALF OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK FRONT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA AND IT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. SMALL THREAT OF LATE DAY
CONVECTION AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WITH NORTH
WINDS THRU EARLY EVENING BECOMING NNE ALONG THE COAST. NORTHEAST
WINDS EVERYWHERE ON TUE INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST AND 6-12 KTS INTERIOR OF ECFL.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUE...WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. N/NNE WINDS BEHIND IT THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING
NE ON TUE. SPEEDS INCREASING 15-20 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST
DECREASING THRU THE DAY SLOWLY ON TUE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT MAY SEE CAUTIONARY CONDS CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK OFFSHORE AT
LEAST SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OFFSHORE/GULF
STREAM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT AWAY FROM
THE COAST TONIGHT...POSSIBLY A FEW 6 FT SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM.
SEAS MAINLY 3-5 FT ON TUE...HIGHER SEAS AGAIN OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM.
LATE THIS DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING A SHOWER/STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT SOUTH OF FORT PIERCE.

WED-SAT...SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE NORTH WITH ONSHORE WINDS
5-10 KNOTS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY
DRY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3 TO PERHAPS 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
OVERALL BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR WORKING DOWN THE
PENINSULA BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA. WILL LIKELY SEE 1-4 HRS OF LOW DURATION RH
VALUES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. 20 FT NORTHERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10-14 MPH.

TUE...DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF LONG
DURATION LOW RH`S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST. INTERIOR NE
20 FT WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS AND 10-15 MPH ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE
COASTS. WHILE A FIRE SENSITIVE DAY WILL OCCUR THE COMBO OF WINDS/ERC
VALUES WILL NOT PERMIT A WATCH/WARNING ISSUANCE.

MIN RHS VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH
MID WEEK. HOWEVER...NEITHER SFC WINDS NOR ERC VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANY CRITICAL ACTION BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  78  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  59  82  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  62  78  63  81 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  62  80  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  56  82  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  58  83  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  82  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  63  79  63  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....VOLKMER