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000
FXUS62 KMLB 120826
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
426 AM EDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...
...MUCH LESS HUMID AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT... WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND APPROACH
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL W/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED AFT STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
MELBOURNE LATER IN THE DAY WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE ARE MOST LIKELY. FARTHER NORTH OFFSHORE FLOW
APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG FOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY BUT GENERALLY
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE
EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH WEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD
TONIGHT...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE FL
PENINSULA MON EVENING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A MUCH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
SOUTH OF ORLANDO MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS FROM OKEECHOBEE TO
THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS...15-20 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE VOLUSIA AND
BREVARD COASTS...SPREADING TO THE TREASURE COAST BY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 80 FAR NORTH AND MID 80S SOUTH.

TUE-SAT...WHILE IT MAY SEEM AS IF THE WET SEASON HAS BEGUN...WE
ARE EXPECTING AN AIRMASS CHANGE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS TUE AND WED MORNINGS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT HOLD
IN THE 60S AT THE COAST AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFIED BY QUICK
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. TUE LOOKS QUITE PLEASANT FOR MID MAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST AND LOW
TO MID 80S INTERIOR...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A NE-E
BREEZE 10-15 MPH.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. WE WILL ALSO LOSE THE NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT SO TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UPWARD AND RETURN TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS THU-FRI. MOISTURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY RETURN BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO ADD RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED A SMALL
20 POP FOR THE NORTH INTERIOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF SEA
BREEZE COLLISIONS POSSIBLE LATE SAT AND SUN AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. SCT SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE
AREA THIS AFT WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS OCCURRING. A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOUTH OF KMLB LATE DAY
WITH BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...W/SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. MAIN THREAT TO BOATERS WILL BE WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...THAT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

MON-THU...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS EARLY MON...THEN PUSH SOUTH OF OUR WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
NORTH WINDS 15 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...
BECOMING 15-20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THESE SPEEDS MAY
PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING ESP THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. SWAN
MODEL DEPICTS SEAS UP TO 5 FT IN THE GULF STREAM LATE MON INTO
TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATER ON TUE
SHOULD CAUSE THE WINDS TO EASE A LITTLE ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON WED AND PROVIDE EASTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTH AND AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE NORTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA MON WITH MIN RH
VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR BOTH MON
AND TUE AFTNS. A FEW RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE MON
AFTN. 20 FT WINDS MAY APPROACH 15 MPH MON AFTN WITH ERC VALUES
NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR RED FLAG WARNING FROM NW OSCEOLA NORTH TO
INTRR VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES. WINDS WILL EASE MIDWEEK WITH A
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE DRY AIRMASS. MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 30-35
PERCENT WED AND AROUND 35 PERCENT THU-FRI OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  65  80  57 /  40  20  10   0
MCO  89  66  84  59 /  40  10  10   0
MLB  87  68  82  62 /  50  20  20   0
VRB  87  68  85  62 /  50  20  20   0
LEE  87  65  82  56 /  40  10  10   0
SFB  89  67  84  58 /  40  10  10   0
ORL  89  68  84  62 /  40  10  10   0
FPR  87  68  84  62 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....KELLY
AVIATION...WEITLICH