Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 131437
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
935 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.UPDATE...

Current...A reinforcing cold and very dry post-frontal air mass
continues to overspread peninsular Florida as the high pressure
ridge extending from Texas across the Gulf Coast/GOMEX into Florida
slides eastward. Morning temps generally in the lower to middle 40s,
with some colder readings in the M-U30s in rural sheltered stations
across the north interior. Full sun is allowing readings to warm
quickly with most areas now in the U40s-L50s.

Remainder of today...Full sun with very dry and comfortable cool
conditions expected this afternoon. Maxes will only reach the L-M60s
north and M-U60s south.

Tonight...Surface high pressure will drift east toward south Florida
overnight as another frontal boundary moves toward the Southeast.
Proximity to the surface high across southern sections should allow
lows to drop into the upper 30s inland from the coast and across
Okeechobee county. Across nrn sections...westerly low level flow off
the gulf to 20-25 knots at 925 mbs will moderate temps some with
lows mainly in the lower 40s and in the mid 40s in urban areas and
near the larger inland lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/SKC.

&&

.MARINE...Latest buoy and CMAN data indicate NW winds of 15-20KT
with seas 4-5FT near shore and 6-6.5FT well offshore. While winds
and seas are expected to diminish steadily this afternoon, given
current conditions of seas up to 6 feet out between 10-20NM, will
need to keep a Cautionary Statement up for the entire marine area
into this afternoon.

&&

UPDATE/SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Cristaldi
DSS/IMPACT WX/LONG TERM...Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017/

Thu-Sun...Models show a more zonal flow aloft into Thursday, with a
S/W trough axis moving through the Midwest and into the southeast
Friday. This will initiate a slow southward progressing weak cool
front across the region late Friday and into the weekend. High
pressure behind this boundary will shift northeast toward the Mid-
Atlantic coast and offshore into the Atlantic on Sunday.

Low level moisture increases out ahead of this boundary into late
week in the westerly flow. However any mentionable rain chances look
to hold off until Friday when sufficient low level moisture and
enhanced support for lift from jet north of the area may be able to
generate a few showers through the afternoon. Still, rain chances
remain low with PoPs ranging from 20-30 percent over mainly central
and northern portions of the region. Dry conditions then expected
through the weekend as front shifts south and stalls near Lake
Okeechobee region early Sunday.

Temperatures will warm to more seasonable values into late week,
with highs reaching the low to mid 70s, and lows in the 50s. A
slight and brief cool down then expected mainly for northern
portions of central Florida Saturday behind the front, with highs in
the mid to upper 60s. As onshore flow strengthens with high pressure
building off the eastern seaboard, temperatures again warm into the
mid to upper 70s for highs on Sunday.

Mon-Wed...Models begin to diverge in their solutions into early next
week regarding the passage of the next cool front to move through
the area. The ECMWF shows a stronger and faster progressing trough
through the central and eastern U.S. that weakens ridge across the
Caribbean region and pushes front and showers associated with this
boundary through Florida during the Monday/Monday night timeframe.
However, the GFS delays this frontal passage until late week,
keeping greater moisture and rain chances north of the area Mon-Tue.
Due to these model differences and lower confidence in the forecast
this far out will only mention a slight chance for showers in the
forecast for Monday. Highs will remain above normal Monday in the
upper 70s to low 80s and then some slight cooling back to more
normal values expected once frontal boundary is able to move through
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Skies will be mainly clear with VFR and dry flying weather today.
Short range guidance indicates some marine stratocu from the Gulf
may make it to KLEE vcnty after 06z.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...NW winds to 15-20 knots near shore and 20 knots offshore
early this morning will decrease to 10-13 knots offshore into the
afternoon hours. Will continue advisory for the offshore waters into
late morning and headlines SCEC near shore.

Tonight...Westerly winds to around 15 knots nrn waters and 10 knots
south will allow seas to gradually subside to 2-3 ft near shore and
around 4 ft offshore.

Thu-Sun...An offshore flow with wind speeds up to 10-15 knots, and
seas ranging from 1-3 feet will generally persist into late week. A
weak cold front is then forecast to move through the region Friday
night into Saturday, switching winds briefly out of the north and
building seas to 4-5 feet offshore. High pressure building offshore
north of the area will then allow winds to quickly veer onshore into
Sunday, with speeds forecast to remain less than 15 knots and seas
around 2-3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Min RHS will drop to 25-30 percent across the interior this
afternoon with NW winds lowering to 5-10 mph through the afternoon.
Decreasing winds through the day and low ERC values are expected so
no headlines will be needed. Thu/Fri...Southwest flow from the Gulf
will moisten low levels some with Min RHs around 50 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  43  71  56 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  63  45  72  55 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  65  40  71  56 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  65  38  71  53 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  63  46  71  57 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  63  45  72  56 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  63  46  71  57 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  65  37  71  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$


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