Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 121550
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1050 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...

RAP40 analysis shows a deep lyr anticyclone extending from Bermuda
into the ern GOMex, generating a steady southerly flow acrs central
FL. Lcl wind profilers show the H100-H85 mean flow has diminished a
touch over the past 12hrs as a weak frontal boundary over the Deep
South/FL Panhandle has eroded the wrn flank of the anticyclone a
touch. Mrng RAOBS show PWat values have increased to btwn 1.25"-
1.50" over central FL, decreasing to arnd 1.00" over south FL. Much
of this moisture was in the H100-H70 lyr due to moisture pooling
within the approaching frontal trof.  Moisture profile confirmed by
RAP40 with H100-H70 mean RH btwn 80-90pct north of the I-4 Corridor,
decreasing to 50-60pct over S FL. Mid lvl thermal cap that was
evident on the 00Z KTBW/KXMR soundings has largely eroded, removing
a sig impudence to precip formation.

The frontal boundary will continue to drift acrs the Panhandle and
into the north Peninsula thru sunset. This will continue to allow
sfc/low lvl winds to diminish, which in turn will allow more defined
east/west coast sea breeze boundaries form than from recent days.
Past few runs of the lcl WRF/HRRR models have been hinting at the
frontal convective band generating an outflow boundary that advects
into central/north FL by mid/late aftn, which would provide an
additional bndry for convective precip to form, though the
decreasing moisture profile to the south will limit precip to areas
from Lake-K/Sebastian Inlet northward.

Mid level temps remain cool enough to maintain a slight chance for
late aftn/early evng tsras from about Cape Canaveral/Kissimmee
northward...slgt chc shras Osceola/S Brevard. Dry WX Treasure
Coast/Lake-O region. Srly flow will continue to keep temps in the
L/M80s...arnd 10F abv avg.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 13/12Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 12/21Z...N of KTIX-KMLB S/SW 8-12KTS...S of KTIX-
KMLB S/SE 8-12KTS. Btwn 12/21Z-12/24Z N of KISM-KEVB bcmg N/NE 5-
8KTS...S of KISM-KEVB bcmg E/SE 7-10KTS. Btwn 13/03Z-13/06Z N of
KISM-KTIX bcmg N/NE AOB 3KTS...S of KISM-KTIX bcmg E/SE AOB 3KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 12/19Z...N of KISM-KTIX areas MVFR cigs btwn
FL015-025 slgt chc MVFR shras. Btwn 12/19Z-12/05Z...cigs btwn FL040-
060...N of KISM-KTIX sct MVFR shras/slgt chc IFR tsras...S of KISM-
KTIX slgt chc MVFR shras. Aft 13/08Z...N of KISM-KTIX areas MVFR/lcl
LIFR vsbys in BR/FG...S of KISM-KTIX ptchy MVFR vsbys in BR.

&&

.MARINE...
Favorable boating conds as high pres over the central FL peninsula
generates a light to gentle srly breeze...S/SW north of Cape
Canaveral, S/SE to the south. Data buoys measuring 3-5FT seas,
mainly in a 9-10sec E/NE swell.  Sfc/bndry lyr winds fcst to
gradually diminish this aftn as a cold front presses into N FL and
erodes the wrn flank of the ridge...steady sea state due to the long
pd swell component. Sct shras/slgt chc tsras north of Sebastian
Inlet from mid aftn thru late evng.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Records Highs:

         2/12
DAB:    84 2009
MCO:    88 1939
SFB:    85 2013
MLB:    85 1955
VRB:    87 1994
FPR:    87 1994

Record Warm Lows:

         02/12
DAB:    66 1959
MCO:    68 1994
SFB:    68 1994
MLB:    70 2008
VRB:    71 1959
FPR:    72 1959

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Long Term/Impact WX...Pendergrast



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