Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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240
FXUS62 KMLB 130900
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...Frontal boundary dropping down the eastern seaboard
will reach northeast Florida today. The GFS then shows the
boundary, indicated by the leading edge of the surface theta e
gradient, approaching our northern sections tonight. A band of
higher moisture will exist just ahead of this boundary and will
bring a chance of showers to the north. Think that the GFS is
continuing to overplay the potential though with likely PoPs in
the far north, since there has been much lower coverage than the
model showed the past few days. Therefore will continue to
undercut MOS PoPs and only have 20% central and 30-40% far north.
The HRRR model hasn`t been showing any inclination to develop
thunder in the north and with quite extensive cloudiness there
this morning, will follow along with it and just carry a chance of
showers.

The GFS generates a little precip today around Lake Okeechobee too
as a small pocket of slightly higher moisture is shown advecting in
from the southeast. Satellite and the GOES precipitable water
product don`t give much indication of this, and with mid level
ridge across the northern Bahamas and south Florida, will continue
with a dry forecast in our southern sections.

With a weakening boundary dropping into northern sections tonight
causing winds to diminish areawide, and moist low levels in place,
will keep patchy late night fog in the forecast for the interior
and north coast. Weak onshore low level flow may also bring a
slight chance of showers to the far north.

With overall more cloudiness today and an earlier sea breeze
along the coast, high temps don`t look as warm as yesterday, but
still above normal. Mid 80s are indicated across the south interior,
otherwise will forecast lower 80s and some mid-upper 70s in the
far north. Overnight lows will continue well above seasonal
normals; lower-mid 60s.

WED...The surface front will gradually dissipate over the area as
deep layer ridging becomes established over the southeast. Some weak
low-level convergence along the boundary looks to exist during the
first half of the day, suggesting a small PoP (15-20%) is justified
across our central and northern zones. Light northeast (onshore)
flow and increased cloud cover across Volusia will mitigate daytime
heating there with highs near to just above normal. Elsewhere,
continued very warm with highs in the low 80s.

THU-MON...An anomalous ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico late in
the week will migrate east over the peninsula and into the western
Atlantic by early next week. The resulting stable conditions will
keep the forecast mostly dry with well above normal temperatures
expected to persist.

A surface front is progged to push toward north Florida this
weekend, though it will likely lose most of its definition by the
time it reaches our area given the strength and persistence of the
ridge. The GFS brings the feature as far south as the I-4 corridor
Saturday night while the ECMWF stalls it to the north of the state.
Regardless of the outcome, little change in sensible weather is
expected as both models keep PoPs below 20%.

&&

.AVIATION...High dew points are in place early this morning but
considerable cloudiness and still some boundary layer southerly flow
10-15 knots have been inhibiting fog. Expect areas of IFR ceilings
past sunrise though, especially at KDAB and the interior terminals.
That area will also have a chance of showers this morning and
into afternoon with a potential for IFR-MVFR continuing, especially
at KDAB. Widespread IFR-LIFR stratus is forecast tonight and
there is some potential for low visibility especially at KDAB,
KLEE and KSFB-KMCO.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A frontal boundary will drop through northeast
Florida today and should then nudge down into our northern waters
tonight while it weakens. Winds will be southeast-east ahead of
this frontal boundary, then become northeast across the northern
waters tonight. Speeds look 10 knots or less. A lingering east
swell will keep sea heights elevated to around 6 feet well
offshore today, but with wind speeds 10 knots or less, won`t carry
an exercise caution statement there. The wave models add a little
north/northeast swell late tonight due to northeast wind surge to
our north so will indicate seas up to 6 feet in the north.

WED-SAT...The surface front will dissipate over the waters on
Wednesday as high pressure takes its place and becomes centered to
the east of the state through the weekend. Onshore winds through
Thursday will turn to the south late in the week while remaining at
or below 10 knots. Seas near the coast 3-4 feet through the period.
Up to 6 feet offshore Wednesday and Thursday due to a continued east
to northeast swell. Headlines are not anticipated due to rolling
swell remaining the primary wave component.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Listed below are the record warm lows for today. The latest
conditions point to a potential for several sites setting records.

         02/13
DAB:    65 1959
MCO:    69 1900
SFB:    65 1994
MLB:    69 1959
VRB:    69 1959
FPR:    69 2013

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  62  73  60 /  30  20  10  10
MCO  82  64  81  62 /  20  10  20  10
MLB  82  67  79  64 /  10  10  20  10
VRB  82  66  80  64 /  10  10  20  10
LEE  81  63  79  62 /  30  10  10  10
SFB  81  64  79  61 /  30  10  20  10
ORL  83  65  80  62 /  20  10  20  10
FPR  82  66  80  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lascody
LONG TERM....Ulrich



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