Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
652 FXUS62 KMLB 051310 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 910 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 .DISCUSSION... ...Isolated to Scattered Showers and Lightning Storms Possible This Afternoon and Evening, One or Two Could Become Strong... Current-Tonight...Satellite/radar imagery show convective cloud/rain bands along the coast and across the local coastal waters this morning. ISOLD-SCT showers are slowly pushing north/northeast in association. We cannot rule out an ISOLD lightning storm with this activity, as well as a funnel cloud or waterspout potential. Activity will spread inland this afternoon and early-mid evening. While most will not likely see precipitation, a couple of slow- moving cells could produce locally heavy rainfall in a short period on top of occasional to frequent (couple storms) lightning strikes and brief gusty winds. Highest PoPs (40-50pct) will occur over the interior and toward the Kissimmee River and Lake County where a sea breeze collision will occur late today. We taper PoPs back to 20- 30pct (morning/early afternoon) closer towards the coast. Movement will be slow/erratic. Afternoon highs in the M80s along the coast and U80s to around 90F into the interior. Overnight lows warm and mild well into the 60s and L70s. ESE/SE winds today 10-15 mph inland and 15 mph along the coast with stronger gusts expected. Winds again become light this evening/overnight. && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR outside of brief reductions to CIGs/VSBYs in/around convection; this morning along the coast and points further inland this afternoon-evening. There will be a late day sea breeze collision well inland. Expect slow/erratic movement of cells due to weak steering flow. SERLY winds 10-15 kts with some higher gusts. Winds become light again this evening and overnight. Will consider "Vicinity" and/or "Tempo" wording as necessary. && .MARINE...Today-Tonight...Visible convective cloud/rain bands in satellite/radar imagery this morning along the coast and across the local coastal waters. SCT showers and ISOLD lightning storms forecast with this slow-moving activity. Primary threats include locally heavy downpours, occasional cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds, and perhaps a waterspout. ESE/SE winds 10-15 kts with some higher gusts. Wind speeds do slowly diminish a bit overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes. Seas mainly 2-3 ft, but could be locally higher around heavier showers/ISOLD storms. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Sedlock/Fehling