000
FXUS62 KMLB 201329
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
929 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE MOISTURE TODAY. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND
INCREASING SURFACE HEATING AS CIRRUS SHIELD SHIFTS EAST WILL LEAD
TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING WITH INCREASING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT WHICH WILL LEAD TO SLOW
MOVING STORMS AND A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
ALSO...LINGERING MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AROUND
-11 TO -12C AT 500MB WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. INCREASING CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH VALUES IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED TO IFR/MVFR IN
SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA INTO THE AFT. STRONGER STORMS MORE
LIKELY TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS
AND SMALL HAIL.


&&

.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FEET
WITH DOMINANT PERIODS 6 TO 10 SEC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW WATERSPOUTS.


&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/KELLY