000
FXUS62 KMLB 181359
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
959 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. STILL RELATIVELY DRY THIS MORNING WITH
12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS FLORIDA SHOWING PW VALUES AROUND 1.2-1.3
INCHES. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTENING SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFT. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND ALSO ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE TODAY WITH THE COLLISION OF THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT (AROUND -10 TO -11C AT 500MB) WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG STORMS FORMING FROM THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION. MAIN THREATS WILL BE SMALL HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IT WILL
BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST AND UP TO AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED. ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED INTO THE AFT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION
OVER THE INTERIOR AFT 21Z. ANY STORMS WILL PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
OVERNIGHT FROM KVRB SOUTHWARD.


&&

.MARINE...RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP E/SE WINDS OVER
THE WATERS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET
NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FEET OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/KELLY