000
FXUS62 KMLB 201930
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...SEA BREEZE COLLISION LOOKS TO OCCUR WEST OF
ORLANDO TOWARD LAKE COUNTY INTO LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY
OVER THE INTERIOR WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET/EARLY EVE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG MARTIN/ST. LUCIE COUNTIES.
LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY...CUTOFF 500MB LOW WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
TOMORROW. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS RANGING FROM
50-60 PERCENT WITH CONVECTION INCREASING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS. WILL KEEP
HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S
INLAND DUE TO EXPECTED HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS.

WED-THU (MODIFIED)...UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW (500 MB) OVER FL WILL
OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING LONGER WAVE CTRL-ERN
CONUS TROUGH. SO AREA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL TROUGHING/
CYCLONIC FLOW. AT THE SFC...FLOW PATTERN WILL WEAKEN AND VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE S/SW AS SOME EROSION OF THE WRN FLANK OF THE BERMUDA
RIDGE TAKES PLACE. COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY WED (40-50 PERCENT) AND THU (40PERCENT) BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE MID-MAY NORMAL OF 30 PCT. SLIGHT CHC FOR RESIDUAL
CONVECTION EACH EVENING. MID LEVEL TEMPS NOT QUITE AS COLD BUT
STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO...
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE INLAND.

FRI-SUN (PREVIOUS)...BASE OF THE ERN CONUS H50 TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY/DROP SEWD OVER THE ADJCT WRN ATLC THROUGH SAT BEFORE
TURNING EWD WELL OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD. A GENERALLY WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER FL FRI THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING BEFORE ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SWD ACROSS FL BY
EARLY SAT EVENING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD INTO FL AND THE
ADJACENT ATLC COUPLED WITH STEERING FLOW VEERING TO NW AND NRLY
WILL LOWER SHRA/TS CHANCES IN A FRESHENING ONSHORE FLOW REGIME
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO FRI-SAT
BEFORE DROPPING BACK A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FLOW BECOMES
ONSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR/MVFR THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION WEST OF ORLANDO. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORMS MAY MOVE
ONSHORE FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. LOW ALOFT WILL THEN
KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS INTO TOMORROW WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 4-5 FEET
OFFSHORE. A DISTURBED WX PATTERN OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE GULF STREAM INTO TOMORROW.

WED-FRI...SOUTHERLY FLOW FALLING BACK TO AROUND 10KT. SEAS 3-4FT
WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE WHAT WINDS WOULD SUPPORT DUE TO A SMALL
BACKGROUND SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  84  68  86 /  20  50  30  40
MCO  69  88  69  90 /  20  60  30  50
MLB  71  84  71  87 /  20  50  30  40
VRB  68  85  71  87 /  30  60  30  40
LEE  69  88  70  88 /  30  60  30  50
SFB  69  88  70  90 /  20  60  30  50
ORL  71  88  71  90 /  20  60  30  50
FPR  70  84  69  88 /  30  60  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
IMPACT WX/RADAR....KELLY