000
FXUS62 KMLB 170221
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN
THIRD OF FL. LIGHT-MDT ESE-SE FLOW CONTINUES TO WANE POST-SUNSET
AS TEMPS FALL TOWARD 70F. WEAK RIPPLES IN THE H50 VORTICITY FIELD
CONTINUE TO STREAM EWD FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE SE SEABOARD. ASCD
SLUG OF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ASCENDING LF QUAD OF H25 JET STREAK
IS PRODUCING SOME WEAK ECHOES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FL. RAOB
MOISTURE PROFILE INDICATE THAT THIS IS SURELY VIRGA DISSIPATING AS
IT REACHES VERY LOW RH AIR MASS BELOW NEAR/BELOW 15KFT.

TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MOISTURE SLUG CENTERED AROUND H50
CONTINUING TO SAG SE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NRN GOMEX. EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE MORE
HIGH (AC/AS/CS) CLOUDS DEVELOP OVERHEAD TONIGHT...HOWEVER THICKNESS
WILL BE LIMITED TO WHERE OVERALL OPACITY STILL WARRANTS "PCLDY SKIES"
OTRW...NOSIG CHANGES TO WINDS/TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...ESE-SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX UPDATES...MOSES