000
FXUS62 KMLB 151808
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
208 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THU...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT LIGHT WINDS VARYING FROM
EAST-NORTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL VEERING TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE FALLING BELOW 5 MPH. ON
THU EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH MOST
PLACES BUT MAY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO 10-15 MPH ALONG THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON THU ACROSS THE AREA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY NEAR 60 DEGREES TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH A FEW MIDDLE 60S PEPPERED ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS. LIKELY STAYING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BEACHSIDE SOUTH OF
THE CAPE. A FEW MIDDLE TO UPPER 50 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON THU IN THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COAST WITH CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S FURTHER INLAND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
WEST FROM THE WRN ATLC WILL PERSIST BUT SHOW SOME SIGNS OF SHIFTING
EAST. UPPER RIDGE THAT BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY WILL REMAIN LESS
AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CUTOFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
OPENS UP AND MERGES WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND. RESULT
IS COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ON THE OTHER HAND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE MINIMAL WITH
PWAT VALUES ONLY GETTING INTO THE 1.3 INCH RANGE AT START OF
WEEKEND. WILL KEEP FCST DRY FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP INTRODUCTION OF PCPN
OVER THE INTERIOR SATURDAY AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND A
BIT MORE MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT WDLY SCT STORMS IN THE AFTN. WENT A
BIT BELOW TEMP GUIDANCE THRUSDAY NIGHT UNDER INFLUENCE OF
PERSISTENTLY DRY AIRMASS.

EXTENDED...NEXT WEEK BEGINS WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA. SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LESS CONV INHIBITION
WITH WEAKENING OF RIDGE NR AREA WL ALLOW FOR ISOLD/SCT DIURNAL PCPN.
INLAND STORM CHCS IMPROVE SAT/SUN AND BEST PLACEMENT WL BE INLAND
WHERE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY MERGERS WL FORCE A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVITY. PRESENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS MODERATED WITH NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EARLY SIGNALS BEYOND DAY
7 SHOW HIGHER MOISTURE AND WOULD EXPECT A MENTIONABLE RAIN CHC FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIODS PAST THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ALL SITES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-THU...EAST-WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BELOW 10 KTS WILL VEER TO ESE/SE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENING SPEEDS MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 10-12 KTS OVER THE WATERS...BUT WILL FALL BACK BELOW 10
KTS DURING THE DAY ON THU. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT
OFFSHORE MAINLY IN A 8-9 SEC SWELL.
FRIDAY/WEEKEND...SFC RIDGE EXTENSION ACROSS WATERS WILL KEEP
RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME SWELL ENERGY WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TO COAST BUT WIND WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON...LIGHT SURFACE FLOW RANGES FROM ENE TO ESE
OVER ECFL. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION. MIN RH
VALUES ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL FALL BLO 35 PCT FOR 4-6
HRS.

SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN PROTECTED AREAS AND INLAND LOW
SPOTS LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND
ONGOING WILDFIRES OR OTHER SMOLDERING BURNS.

THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SFC/TRANSPORT FLOW MAY VEER MORE ESE/SE ON THIS
DAY BUT WILL REMAIN WEAK. MAY SEE A FEW HOURS WHERE MIN RH VALUES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR DROP TO NEAR 35 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  84  64  83 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  62  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  65  84  68  84 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  63  82  67  83 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  63  88  66  88 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  63  87  66  88 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  65  87  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  62  82  66  84 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....BLOTTMAN