000
FXUS62 KMLB 141954
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
354 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH TONIGHT...DRY POCKET OVER EC FL KEEPING CU FIELD RATHER
SPARSE. EARLIER CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE FA WAS ASSOCD WITH
PRE FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HAS SINCE PUSHED OFFSHORE
FLAGER COUNTY. STRONG NORTH WINDS ALOFT HAVE CLEARED OUT THE
DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA GIVING THE ATMOS ANOTHER
CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE. HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTH FL ASSOCD WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT ITSELF AND MOTION WILL BE
TOWARD THE SE TOWARD CENT FL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH
NORTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES BUT PROB NOT ORLANDO BEFORE WE
LOSE SFC HEATING. STILL THINK THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR STRONG
STORMS NORTH OF ORLANDO THROUGH SUNSET CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SAT-SUN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS THE PENINSULA
PULLS FURTHER AWAY. RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE STATE INTO
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SCOOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN US.

AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC LEAVING ITS RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE STATE WHILE THE THE ECMWF WASHES IT OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
CAPE CANAVERAL AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR. WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR AND SUPPRESSION FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT 20 PERCENT OR LOWER
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL TEND TO SHIFT ANY
DEVELOPMENT MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S/AROUND 90
AT THE COAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE
COAST IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR.

MON-THU...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE WEEK AS EAST-WEST ORIENTED 500MB RIDGE OVER FLORIDA
SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH. SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PUSH THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE RIDGE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...MODELS KEEP THE BEST
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
CARRIBEAN DURING THE WEEK WELL SOUTH. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE SHIFT IN STEERING FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL CONCENTRATE MORE STORMS ON THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. POPS ON MON AND TUES WILL BE 20
COAST/30 INTERIOR AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER
INLAND WITH 30/40 EVERYWHERE WED-THURS AS IT MAKES LESS OF AN INLAND
PUSH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. TEMPO MVFR WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT LEE/SFB/DAB 21Z-24Z
IN TSRA. WINDS WILL TURN NE-E SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INTERIOR AND WEST
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA SAT AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND SURGE SAT MORN/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WILL SEE WINDS VEERING FROM NORTH AROUND 5KTS IN THE MORNING TO
EAST 10-15KTS OVER ALL THE WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE AXIS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING A FAIRLY STEADY 10-15KTS EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED.

MON-TUES...EASTERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND VEER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE INTO MID WEEK
WITH OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS BECOMING A BETTER POSSIBILITY AFTER
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  87  73  85 /  20  10  10  20
MCO  73  92  73  91 /  20  20  10  20
MLB  74  88  76  87 /  20  20  10  20
VRB  72  88  74  86 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  74  92  73  91 /  20  20  10  20
SFB  74  92  73  91 /  20  20  10  20
ORL  75  91  74  91 /  20  20  10  20
FPR  72  87  75  87 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/BRAGAW