000
FXUS62 KMLB 191924
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
324 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPED
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS RACING WESTWARD AND WILL COLLIDE
WITH A LESS ACTIVE WEST COAST BREEZE LATE THIS AFT. THIS COLLISION
LOOKS TO OCCUR NEAR LAKE/SUMTER COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET AND LOCAL WRF
STILL INDICATES A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. AS STORMS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...ONLY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE WHERE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

MONDAY...RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE MOISTURE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA AND GENERATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. MOS POP GUIDANCE
SEEMED A LITTLE HIGH SO UNDERCUT THEM SLIGHTLY WITH RAIN CHANCES
RANGING FROM 40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST TO 50 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR. INCREASING CONVECTION/CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

TUE-FRI (PREVIOUS)...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
RESULTING IN CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS
IN THE ATMOSPHERE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW BEST MOISTENING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THEN A DRYING TREND
STARTING OVERNIGHT THU. DAY TIME POPS 30 TO 50 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST
POP INTERIOR DUE TO THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS
EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGHS UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S INTERIOR AND THE MID AND UPPER 80S AT
THE COAST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND MAINLAND COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE LOW 70S AT THE BEACHES CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH.

SAT...WEAK FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT IS
BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND ATLANTIC BUILDING ACROSS
THE STATE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRY AIR FROM 700MB AND
ABOVE MOVING IN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD LOWER POPS T0 20 AND
30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z. GREATER MOISTURE AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TOMORROW WILL GENERATE GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WATERS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 3-4 FEET.

TUE-FRI...HAVE LOWERED WINDS AND SEAS FOR MIDWEEK. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-13 KNOTS TUE WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
THU-FRI BUT REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  83  69  85 /  20  40  20  30
MCO  70  88  68  89 /  20  50  30  40
MLB  72  84  70  86 /  20  40  30  40
VRB  71  84  70  86 /  20  40  30  40
LEE  70  88  69  88 /  20  50  20  40
SFB  71  88  69  89 /  20  50  20  30
ORL  72  88  70  88 /  20  50  30  40
FPR  71  84  70  86 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
IMPACT WX/RADAR....KELLY