000
FXUS62 KMLB 210747
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...

TODAY...CUTOFF 500MB LOW WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.  THIS
DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD FIRST START AT THE COAST LATE MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM COVERAGE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
THEN STARTING A DECREASING TREND AROUND SUNSET. A LIGHT SOUTH TO
NORTH WIND PROFILE WILL RESULT IN SLOW STORMS MOTION THAT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF STREETS AND RETENTION PONDS OVERFLOWING. STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND
COUNTIES AND MIDDLE 80S AT THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORMS AND SHOWERS IN THE EVENING DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND SHIFT TO THE COAST AS THE MID LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

WED-FRI...WEAKENING COMPACT H50 LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FL OPENS UP
AND LIFTS NE...BEFORE GETTING DEFORMED/SHEARED OUT RAPIDLY WED NIGHT
/EARLY THU AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFYING CTRL-ERN CONUS
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL DROP SE ALONG THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD AND
WRN ATLC LATE THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AT THE SFC...LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL WEAKEN AS IT VEERS TO SRLY THU AND THEN ESSENTIALLY COLLAPSE
THU NIGHT-FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LATE-SEASON FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH...WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH ECFL FRI NIGHT. A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT AND
CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND.

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON WED (50) THEN GRADUALLY
FALLING BACK CLOSER TO  CLIMO (25-35) THU-FRI. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
A LITTLE ABOVE MID-LATE MAY NORMALS.

SAT-MON...WRN ATLC H50 TROUGH WILL SWEEP QUICKLY EWD THIS WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH A GENERAL CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSISTS OVER
THE ERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAIRLY STOUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER ECFL WITH MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES SAT (15-20) ALONG
WITH ABSENCE OF TS. IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MEAN DRY AIR
WORKING INTO ECFL TO ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST OVER LAND SUN-MON...
THOUGH A STRAY ATLC SHOWER COULD REACH THE COAST.

TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR CLIMO NORMS OF L-M80S ALONG THE COAST
AND U80S INLAND. MINS IN THE U60S INLAND TO L70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR/MVFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL
GUSTS AOA 35KT...SMALL HAIL AND VISIBILITY BELOW 1SM IN STRONGER TS.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT...BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND
3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS WITH A 2 FOOT LONG PERIOD SWELL COMPONENT.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS CONTINUE.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. NUMEROUS
SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LIGHT
WIND PROFILES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR WATER SPOUT FORMATION UNDER THE
STRONGER STORMS. SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL COMPONENT WILL PRODUCE A
LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE BEACHES ESPECIALLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EVENING OUTGOING TIDES.

WED-SAT...SLACKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP 2-4FT FROM WED
THROUGH LATE FRI. CURRENT FORECAST STRENGTH OF NE-E SURGE BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH WINDS/SEAS WELL INTO SCA RANGE...AROUND
20KT WITH SEAS 6-9FT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  69  86  69 /  60  30  50  30
MCO  88  69  89  70 /  60  30  50  30
MLB  85  71  87  71 /  70  30  50  30
VRB  85  70  87  71 /  70  30  50  30
LEE  89  70  88  70 /  60  30  50  30
SFB  89  70  90  71 /  60  30  50  30
ORL  88  71  90  71 /  60  30  50  30
FPR  85  70  86  71 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AVIATION...WIMMER