000
FXUS62 KMLB 150727
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT....SFC RIDGE OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA CONTINUES TO ERODE
SWD AS A WEAK COOL FRONT CONTINUES TO SLUMP SOUTHWARD INTO NRN LAKE
/VOLUSIA COS. BAND OF SHOWERS/TS ALONG THE BOUNDARY GOT REINVIGORATED
AS NARROW FRONTAL CONVG ZONE MOVED INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER NOCTURNAL
CAPE OVER CTRL FL. LOCAL 88DS DON`T SHOW MUCH WIND....HOWEVER SLOW-
MOVING DOWNPOURS ARE PRODUCING UP TO AROUND 2" IN OF RAIN OVER AREAS
FROM ALTOONA/ASTOR TO JUST S/SE OF LAKE GEORGE. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE SAGGING SWD...AND AS SUCH WILL NEED TO RUN WITH A PRE-FIRST
PERIOD FOR THE MORNING FORECAST TO SHOW HIGHER POPS IN THOSE AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN CWA WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND
WASH OUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WEAKENING RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE AS
ENE TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SPREAD SWD THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL
PUSH DIFFUSE ECSB AND MARINE MODIFIED AIR BEHIND IT QUICKLY EWD THRU
THE CWA...LEADING TO COOLER MAX TEMPS AND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW
NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY WELL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE RIBBON. MAXES IN THE U80S NEAR THE COAST AND L90S INLAND...
CLOSER TO 85F NEAR THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. MINS GENERALLY
IN THE L-M70S...WITH SOME U70S ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

SUN-MON...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FLATTENS OUT
AND STRETCHES ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH THAT MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARDS
DRIFT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND
SLIDING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS AS A RELATIVELY
(FOR JUNE) DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 20 PERCENT COAST/30 PERCENT
INLAND BOTH AFTERNOONS. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE MORE
DOMINANT ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL TEND TO SHIFT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WELL INLAND AND TOWARDS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON ON EVENING. HOWEVER LIGHTER FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFT ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE
WITH THE COLLISION EXPECTED TO HAPPEN CLOSER TO THE ORLANDO METRO.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S/AROUND 90
AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID 70S WITH LOW
TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR.

TUES-FRI...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS EAST-WEST ORIENTED 500MB RIDGE OVER FLORIDA SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON
THURS AND FRI ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A STRONGER TROUGH THAT
MAY BE ABLE TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO REACH INTO
FLORIDA.

FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON ALONG BOTH SEA
BREEZES. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION AND BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND UPON WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP...BOTH
MODELS POINT TO IT BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
(FAVORING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR RAIN)...AND ACROSS
OR TO THE NORTH ON THURS AND FRI.

TUES/WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH SLOWER EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID 70S WITH LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT PRE-12Z AMDS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR KSFB-KLEE SHOULD ACTIVITY HOLD TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER 2-3HRS.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TS...BUT PROBS APPEAR
TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WARRANT MENTION OF VC IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SNAP SHIFT TO ENE-E AS
POST-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SAGS DOWN THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH. HAD TO SHAVE BACK SWAN SEA HGTS BY A GOOD
1-2FT FOR THE FIRST 12HRS...AND THEN ABOUT ONT HALF TO A FOOT FOR
TONIGHT AS EXTRAPOLATION OF BOUNDARY IMPLIES THAT THE INCREASE IN
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN (AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS)
WHAT THE MODEL INDICATES. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO NEAR 15KT WITH
SEAS 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4FT WELL OFFSHORE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...STEADY 10-15KTS EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WATERS AS
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHWARDS INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED.

MON-WED...FLOW WILL VEER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS WILL BACK MORE EASTERLY NEAR
THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SPEEDS CONTINUING AROUND
10-15KTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE INTO MID WEEK WITH OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS
BECOMING A BETTER POSSIBILITY STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  74  86  72 /  20  10  10  10
MCO  92  73  91  73 /  20  10  20  10
MLB  87  77  87  75 /  20  10  20  10
VRB  87  76  86  73 /  10  10  20  10
LEE  91  72  91  73 /  20  10  20  20
SFB  91  72  91  73 /  20  10  20  10
ORL  90  73  91  74 /  20  10  20  10
FPR  88  76  86  73 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....MOSES