000
FXUS62 KMLB 200744
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...WET WX MID-MAY WX PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...

MON...RIDGE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA GEORGIA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE DEEPENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND
1.75 INCHES.  A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND SHOULD GENERATE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE REGION. THE
00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM TAMPA TO ATLANTA RECORDED 500MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C WHICH SHOULD ADVECT SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS SHOW A COLD POCKET OF -11C TO -12C AIR AT 500MB TO ACCOMPANY
THE VORTICITY MAX/TROUGH AS IT DROPS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE COOLER MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD STEEPEN MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.  MOS POP OF 60 NORTH AND 50
SOUTH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE RELATIVELY
COLDER AIR AT 500MB AND CONTINUED INCREASING MEAN LAYER
WATER/PRECIPITABLE WATER. BACKED OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 80S
INTERIOR AND LOW AND MID 80S AT THE COAST A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO THE
OVERCAST SKIES.

MON NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER LOW...ITS VORTICITY MAX AND COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE -9C TO -11C RANGE CARRIED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL AROUND 2 AM THEN DROPPED OFF TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTER 2 AM. CLOUD COVER AND THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH AND THE
INTERIOR AND THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
MOIST GROUND AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS CONDUCIVE FOR PATCHY FOG BUT
WILL DEFER ANY MENTION TO THE DAY SHIFTS AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE.

TUE-THU...COMPACT CUTOFF H50 LOW WILL SIT ATOP FL TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WED MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF A AMPLIFYING
LONGER WAVE CTRL-ERN CONUS TROUGH. STILL LOOKING AT WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD WED NIGHT-THU THOUGH. AT THE SFC...
S/SSE FLOW PATTERN TUE WILL WEAKEN AND VEER SLIGHTLY WED-THU AS SOME
EROSION OF THE WRN FLANK OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE TAKES PLACE. EXPECT A
RATHER WET/HIGH COVERAGE DAY (60 PCT) ON TUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND A FAVORABLE PATTERN ALOFT. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BOTH WED (40-50) AND THU (40)...
IT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE MID-MAY NORMAL OF 30 PCT. SLIGHT CHC
FOR RESIDUAL CONVECTION EACH EVENING...EXCEPT FOR TUE (40) AS THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD HELP TO KEEP STORMS GOING WELL INTO
THE EVENING. MID LEVEL TEMPS SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS...
ESPECIALLY TUE AS POOL OF COLDER H50 TEMPS (-10 TO -11C) LINGERS
OVERHEAD. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE INLAND.

FRI-SUN...BASE OF THE ERN CONUS H50 TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY/DROP SEWD
OVER THE ADJCT WRN ATLC THROUGH SAT BEFORE TURNING EWD WELL OFFSHORE
THE SERN SEABOARD. A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
OVER FL FRI THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING BEFORE ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH
DROPS SWD ACROSS FL BY EARLY SAT EVENING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SWD INTO FL AND THE ADJACENT ATLC COUPLED WITH STEERING FLOW VEERING
TO NW AND NRLY WILL LOWER SHRA/TS CHANCES IN A FRESHENING ONSHORE
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO
FRI-SAT BEFORE DROPPING BACK A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FLOW BECOMES
ONSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO START. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE STORMS
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND GUSTS >25 KNOTS AND SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE INVOF STRONGER AFTERNOON STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING AROUND 15 KNOTS.  SEAS 3-4 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIODS 9
TO 11 SEC. LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON STORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS..HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.

TUE-FRI...SE-SRLY WINDS 10-15KT THROUGH TUE NIGHT FALLING BACK TO
AOB 10KT FROM WED ONWARD. 3-5FT SEAS ON TUE WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
TO 3-4FT...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE WHAT WINDS WOULD SUPPORT DUE TO
A SMALL BACKGROUND SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  69  85  69 /  60  50  60  40
MCO  88  68  88  69 /  50  40  60  40
MLB  84  70  86  70 /  60  50  60  40
VRB  84  70  86  70 /  50  50  60  40
LEE  88  69  87  70 /  50  40  60  40
SFB  88  69  89  70 /  60  50  60  40
ORL  88  70  88  71 /  50  40  60  40
FPR  84  70  86  70 /  60  50  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI