000
FXUS62 KMLB 171853
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
252 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...DRYNESS OF THE LOW LVL AIRMASS STILL APPARENT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH A 56 DEG DEWPOINT AT LEESBURG AT 2 PM. SHORT RANGE
MODELS STILL INDICATE AN EVENING SEA BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS WRN
LAKE COUNTY BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED IF THEY DEVELOP AT
ALL WITH STILL SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS. SE WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP DURING THE EVENING AND THEN WANE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT SHOWER BAND OFF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAY CLIP
THE MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTY COAST WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FROM FT PIERCE TO JUPITER INLET
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG
SOUTHERN CSTL SECTIONS.

SATURDAY...SOME MOISTURE ORIGINATING ACROSS NW BAHAMAS WILL WORK NW
OVER E CENTRAL FL ON SAT WITH LOW LVL SE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NW
FLOW IN THE MID LVLS WITH H5 TEMPS COOLING TO -10 TO -11 DEGS WILL
PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH SOME STORMS MAKING IT BACK TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA LEADING TO RELATIVELY WEAK S/SE LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH PW VALUES REACHING
1.5-1.8 INCHES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AS THEY PUSH INLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR WITH ANY BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND.

CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR WILL DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING. THEN
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL EXIST ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

MON-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATING OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL OF THE WHOLE ATMOSPHERE INCREASING
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STILL BEING BELOW 850MB/5000 FEET.
CHANCE/30 POP OF AFTERNOON STORMS/SHOWER INTERIOR COUNTIES. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A MORNING COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWER WITH EARLY AFTERNOON
STORMS COASTAL COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCES 20-30 PERCENT EACH DAY. HIGHS
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S INTERIOR AND MID TO HIGH 80S COASTAL AREAS.
LOWS MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH NEAR OR JUST PAST KLEE THIS
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE
COLLISION WITH DRY MID LVLS SO HAVE KEPT LEESBURG FORECAST DRY.
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A VCSH FROM KFPR-KSUA LATER TONIGHT WITH A FEW
SHRA FROM THE ATLC POSSIBLY MOVING ONSHORE. DECREASING SE WINDS
EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AS INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM EAST
COAST BREEZE WANES. INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLD
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SAT MAINLY AFT 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SHORT RANGE MODELS FORECAST SE FLOW TO PICK UP AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH SE WINDS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 3-4 FT.
SE WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP SEAS MAINLY IN THE 3-4
FT RANGE HIGHEST OFFSHORE. INLAND BOATERS AND THOSE ALONG THE
INTRACOASTAL WILL WANT TO BE ON GUARD FOR ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS AFTER THE STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WE
HAVE HAD LATELY. NATIONAL SAFE BOATING WEEK BEGINS THIS WEEKEND.

SUN-WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SPEEDS BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY INCREASING UP TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING SE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ELEVATE
MOISTURE LEVELS AND RETURN THE CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS FOR E
CENTRAL FL INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MIN RHS WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  86  69  85 /  10  20  10  20
MCO  68  90  69  89 /  10  30  20  30
MLB  72  85  72  86 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  70  85  70  85 /  10  20  10  20
LEE  68  90  70  88 /  10  30  20  30
SFB  69  90  70  89 /  10  30  20  30
ORL  70  90  71  89 /  10  30  20  30
FPR  70  84  69  86 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WEITLICH