000
FXUS62 KMLB 121330
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRYING WORKING
DOWN THE PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. KXMR 10Z SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT OF 1.67 INCHES AND A VERY
WEAK WIND PROFILE. ANY STORMS ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. 500 MB
VALUES BETWEEN -8C/-9C SO SMALL HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.
GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY HEAVIER CELLS.

EXPECT AN EAST-WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION LATE TODAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER
THE AREA. EXPECT STORMS TO END DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR FILTERS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGHS IN THE M90S ORLANDO WEST TO THE U80S AND L90S AT THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH AND SLOW DOWN HEATING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW AND M70S.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PRESSES
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PENINSULA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE KMCO-KMLB SOUTH. TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS VISIBILITIES VICINITY OF AFTERNOON STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WESTERLY MORNING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
OR WEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINING BELOW 10 KTS
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE
BETWEEN 8-11 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE
AND OFFSHORE SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK